Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$43.22-0.92%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Bristow Group aims to grow revenue to about $1.635 billion in 2026. The Berry Aviation acquisition will expand government services from 26% to 35% of revenue. Profit margins and cash flow are expected to improve with adjusted EBITDA near $310 million. The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share.
Earnings have missed recently, with a 60% EPS miss in Q1 2026. Operating cash flow was negative in Q1 due to timing issues. The sector faces headwinds, and revenue growth may slow below analyst expectations. The acquisition integration risks could weigh on earnings and cash flow.
The stock trades about 10% below our fair value near $48 with analysts expecting 8.4% revenue growth. Our view aligns with consensus but we see risks from recent earnings misses and cash flow volatility.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $295 million in FY26
Breaks if: Dividend cut below $0.125 per share in FY26
Breaks if: Adjusted free cash flow falls below $160 million in 2025
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the energy sector. The current thesis state is fragile, with recent earnings misses impacting confidence despite a stable management team and a strategic acquisition aimed at expanding government services.
The market currently prices VTOL as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified by the company's fragile earnings quality and the turbulent sector backdrop.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to a history of earnings misses. However, management has reaffirmed revenue and EBITDA guidance, which could stabilize performance if achieved.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit energy names like VTOL. Additionally, maintaining guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers will be critical for sustaining momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own VTOL has weakened. Recent financial performance fell from the 55th to the 50th percentile. This change indicates a decline in the company's standing. The latest earnings miss adds to this concern. However, the acquisition of Berry Aviation supports growth in Government Services.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on increasing operating cash flow and free cash flow through improved earnings and working capital management.
Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q2, 2026-Q1, and 2025-Q4. Operating cash flow improved significantly from a negative $8.3 million in 2026-Q1 to positive $41.1 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting higher earnings and better working capital management. This improvement aligns with management’s focus on enhancing cash flow generation, showing delivery on this operational priority.
“Net cash provided by operating activities was $41.1 million in the Current Quarter.”
“Net cash used in operating activities was $8.3 million in the Current Quarter.”
“Net cash provided by operating activities was $76.9 million in the Current Quarter.”
Breaks if: Government Services revenue share remains below 30% after 2026-Q2
Complete acquisition of Berry Aviation to add special mission capabilities and strengthen Government Services offerings with diversified, contracted revenue streams.
Stated in 2 disclosures including 2026-Q2 and the June 2026 announcement. The acquisition of Berry Aviation, with 2025 revenues of approximately $108 million, was completed for $105 million in cash. This expands Bristow’s Government Services platform with special mission capabilities and long-term government contracts, aligning with management’s stated strategic shift toward durable contracted revenue streams. The transaction is accretive and supports diversification, consistent with management’s messaging.
“Completed the acquisition of Berry Aviation, expanding the Company’s Government Services offering”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.58 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VTOL's outlook will depend on management's execution and broader sector conditions. Not investment advice.