Verastem, Inc. (VSTM)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.04-0.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Verastem, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	31.22M
EPS	—	-0.401
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	113.48M
EPS	—	-1.628
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	159.1M
EPS	—	-1.565

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve revenue of ~$17.5M from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK in Q4 2025	It targets $17.5 million revenue from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK in Q4 2025.	Intact	revenue falls below $17 million in Q4 2025	Revenue: $40.078M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=17.5 USD_MILLIONS in Q4 2025. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202640,078,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4f708d3f-7ae3-4f6b-9e09-8e926772c462. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net product revenue for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK increased substantially from $2.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $25.1 million in 2026-Q2, driven by new patient starts and refills. The trajectory is delivering strong revenue growth consistent with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage operating losses near -$45M and cash burn near -$52M quarterly	A primary condition in Verastem, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is operating losses no worse than -$45M and cash burn no worse than -$52M per quarter.	Improving	losses or cash burn worsen beyond recent levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating losses improved from -$41.5 million in 2025-Q4 to -$32.7 million in 2026-Q2. Pro forma cash increased to $201.4 million in 2026-Q2 due to non-dilutive financing and milestone payments, supporting funding operations into late 2027. The trajectory shows delivering on capital management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance clinical development of VS-7375 for KRAS G12D tumors	Verastem focuses on developing VS-7375 for KRAS G12D tumors.	Improving	clinical trial progress stalls or negative data emerges	Qualitative progress confirmed (FDA Fast Track, positive data) vs target FDA Fast Track for lung cancer; RBC raises target on G12D data; launch financing supports development. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. VS-7375 enrollment progressed with over 200 patients treated in TARGET-D 101 and first patients dosed in three Phase 2 trials by 2026-Q2. Management expects to report updated clinical data in October 2026. The trajectory shows delivering on clinical development milestones. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.16B

$0.18B → $0.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$178,348,000	3 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$179,586,110	2 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$179,586,110	2 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$181,127,500	1 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$181,127,500	1 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$177,706,875	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$177,706,875	3 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$177,706,875	3 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$177,706,875	3 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$177,706,875	3 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$181,123,738	3 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$179,174,822	3 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$179,174,822	3 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$179,152,600	3 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$179,152,600	3 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$179,152,600	3 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$179,152,600	3 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$178,597,044	3 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$178,597,044	3 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$178,597,044	3 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$178,597,044	3 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$178,600,389	3 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$177,987,833	3 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$170,276,722	3 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$159,100,389	3 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	0	0
2026-06-01	9	0	0
2026-07-01	9	0	0
2026-08-01	9	0	0
2026-09-01	10	0	0
2026-10-01	10	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Jul 7

$14.00 → $19.00+35.7%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 15 · prior May 8

$18.00 → $22.00+22.2%

JefferiesOct 14 · prior Jun 23

$8.00 → $13.00+62.5%

$0$12.10$24.20

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve revenue of ~$17.5M from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK in Q4 2025Revenue: $40.078M
Manage operating losses near -$45M and cash burn near -$52M quarterlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Verastem, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VSTM is a clinical-stage biotechnology company with a commercial launch, so this is a high-risk growth story rather than an established compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: key development and launch priorities are progressing, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Verastem, Inc.

The valuation model indicates a sizable premium to peers, with expectations well ahead of its current fundamentals. The priced-in assessment calls that premium justified and finds low fragility, but the evidence gives no precise view of how much future clinical or commercial success the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK revenue has grown, and management reports progress in VS-7375 development; recent earnings reports were also positive. VSTM remains loss-making, and elevated industry risk, a CEO transition, and the possibility of weaker guidance temper the picture. The evidence on overall financial performance is neutral.

What Verastem, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued launch execution, clinical progress for VS-7375, and results from the RAMP 301 Phase 3 trial, expected by mid-2027. Weaker guidance or a deteriorating economic backdrop would weigh on the setup, while continued strength among healthcare peers could support sector momentum.