Verastem, Inc. (VSTM)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
$7.94-1.73%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Verastem focuses on developing VS-7375 for KRAS G12D tumors. It targets $17.5 million revenue from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK in Q4 2025. The company has strong clinical data and FDA fast track status. These support future growth and value.
Verastem keeps losing money and burning cash. Revenue targets are unproven. Clinical progress may stall. The stock is volatile and risky.
The price is about 50% below our fair value near $10. Our fair value is 37% below the Street median near $16. The market prices a weak outlook and slow growth.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $17 million in Q4 2025
Drive revenue growth from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK through increased patient starts, refills, and market expansion.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is navigating through a challenging landscape while focusing on advancing its clinical development and maximizing commercial execution.
The current valuation suggests that the market has priced in a justified level, with expectations that are slightly below the industry average. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the stock is not overly sensitive to immediate changes.
Management is making mixed progress on key priorities, with strong revenue growth from the AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK but ongoing operating losses. The company's cash management appears stable, supporting operations into 2027 despite rising expenses.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to meet clinical development milestones and manage operating losses. Additionally, broader sector performance, particularly from leading healthcare companies, will influence VSTM's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the company's outlook. However, analysts cut revenue views, which threatens growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue increased from $2.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $40.1 million in 2026-Q2, driven by AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK net product revenue growth from $2.1 million to $25.1 million. Management attributes growth to new patient starts and increased refills, indicating delivery on revenue growth objectives.
“Strong quarter-over-quarter growth for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK driven by new patient starts and increased refills.”
“Reported $18.7 million in net product revenue for AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK in Q1 2026.”
Breaks if: losses or cash burn worsen beyond recent levels
Breaks if: clinical trial progress stalls or negative data emerges
Continue enrollment and clinical evaluation of VS-7375 in multiple Phase 2 trials across pancreatic, colorectal, and lung cancers with planned Phase 3 initiations in 1H 2027.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reported first patient dosing and near completion of enrollment in three TARGET-D Phase 2 trials by mid-2026, with plans to initiate three Phase 3 pivotal trials in the first half of 2027. The clinical development trajectory is delivering consistent progress toward these milestones.
“First patients dosed in all three TARGET-D Phase 2 registration-directed clinical trials evaluating VS-7375.”
“Completed target enrollment in TARGET-D 101 PDAC and NSCLC monotherapy cohorts and CRC cetuximab combination cohorts.”
“Expect to complete enrollment across all three TARGET-D Phase 2 trials by the end of 2026 and initiate Phase 3 pivotal trials in 1H 2027.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, VSTM's performance will depend on its execution of clinical and commercial strategies amid a supportive sector backdrop. Not investment advice.