VSE Corporation (VSEC)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$142.17-4.04%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge VSE Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.01 → 8.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	529.09M
EPS	—	1.841
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.81B
EPS	—	6.604
Revenue growth	61%–64%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.2B
EPS	—	8.15

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete acquisition of Precision Aviation Group	VSE finished buying Precision Aviation Group for $2 billion.	Recovered	Acquisition not completed by 2026-Q1	Completed 2026-05-05 vs 2026-Q1 target VSE completed PAG acquisition for $2.025B on May 5, 2026. Recent news highlights successful integration and synergy realization. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash from operating activities	A supporting condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Cash from operations improves toward positive in next 4 quarters.	Improving	Cash flow remains negative or worsens over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $27.557M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations improves toward positive in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202627,557,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share	A supporting condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share maintained.	Intact	Dividend cut or suspension	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board consistently declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share in 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. This reflects a stable capital allocation policy with no change in dividend amount, indicating management is maintaining this priority as stated. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 18.1%-18.5%	A primary condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin >= 18.1%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 18.1% in FY26	Gross margin: 17.02% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >= 18.1%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202617.019083 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near $2.6 billion	A primary condition in VSE Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $2.56 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.56 billion in FY26	Revenue: $449.137M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $2.56 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026449,137,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b310f3e4-62e9-4992-804f-5eb693f741e6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.15

$5.78 → $8.15 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.20B

$2.16B → $2.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-02	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-05	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-06	$5.68	$2,156,230,040	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-09	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-12	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-15	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$5.78	$2,156,226,720	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$7.72	$2,198,752,626	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$8.01	$2,200,842,626	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$8.01	$2,200,846,138	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$8.01	$2,200,846,138	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$8.01	$2,200,846,138	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$8.01	$2,200,846,138	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$8.01	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$8.28	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$8.28	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$8.28	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$8.17	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$8.17	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$8.17	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$8.17	$2,199,540,489	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$8.17	$2,200,817,633	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$8.17	$2,200,817,633	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$8.15	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$8.16	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-19	$8.16	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-20	$8.13	$2,201,595,798	7 / 8
2026-10-21	$8.14	$2,202,132,710	7 / 8
2026-10-22	$8.14	$2,202,132,710	7 / 8
2026-10-23	$8.14	$2,202,132,710	7 / 8
2026-10-24	$8.15	$2,202,038,318	7 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	0
2026-06-01	9	1
2026-07-01	9	1
2026-08-01	9	1
2026-09-01	9	2
2026-10-01	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 15

$230.00 → $215.00-6.5%

$0$126.50$253.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activitiesCash from operations: $27.557M
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 18.1%-18.5%Gross margin: 17.02%
Revenue growth near $2.6 billionRevenue: $449.137M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

VSE Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an acquisition-led growth business with a multi-year thesis tied to integrating PAG and capturing expected synergies. The thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is fragile, management execution has been volatile, and overall risk is high.

What's priced into VSE Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure shows VSEC as cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.99 premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in assessment calls expectations justified and fragility low, but that does not remove the gap between strong recent results and uncertain execution quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent earnings beat and raised guidance support the operating picture, while acquisition-related cash-flow timing and erratic past earnings remain risks. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on completing PAG integration, realizing more than $15 million in annualized synergies, and advancing toward management’s margin goal; recent execution is consistent with its stated priorities, but cash-flow progress is mixed.

What VSE Corporation hinges on

A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage management credibility as well as weaken the outlook. The sector backdrop is also a headwind, and results and guidance from SPCX, GE, and RTX could signal whether support for industrial companies is strengthening or fading. PAG integration and cash generation are additional swing factors.