Valley Bank (VLY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$13.76-1.15%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve EPS of at least $1.01 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $0.30 vs $1.01 target.
Valley Bank is growing deposits and loans steadily, with deposits at $52.9 billion and loans at $50.8 billion as of Q1 2026. The bank keeps paying dividends of $0.11 per share and is investing in AI to improve efficiency. Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $1.28 in 2026. The valuation is reasonable with a P/E of 13.5 and a free cash flow yield of 7%.
Revenue is expected to decline about 16% next year, which could pressure earnings. The bank's AI investments have mixed progress and may not improve efficiency soon. Rising debt issuance could increase financial risk. If deposit growth slows, earnings sustainability may weaken.
The market prices in about -16% revenue growth and a fair value near $14.6 per share, slightly above our $14.58 fair value. Our fair value is below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism. We see upside if earnings and deposit growth continue as planned.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.11 in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26
Breaks if: total loans fall below $50 billion in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity with a focus on improving operational efficiency and diversifying the loan portfolio. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral but shows signs of improvement.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but overall valuation is seen as cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive developments may not be fully reflected in the current valuation.
Management's focus on growing low-cost deposits and improving efficiency suggests a stable trajectory for fundamentals in the near term. However, there is a risk of earnings misses, as the company has a history of such events, which could impact investor sentiment.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and whether they continue to guide higher. Additionally, VLY's ability to maintain its operational efficiency and manage its capital structure will be crucial for sustaining growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced an acquisition of a lender. This move diversifies its loan portfolio and enhances growth. However, the latest earnings report showed a miss. The earnings miss raises concerns about future performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: total deposits fall below $52 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, VLY's performance will depend on both external sector dynamics and internal execution. Not investment advice.