Valley Bank (VLY)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.06+1.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Valley Bank’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.54 → 1.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	596.25M
EPS	—	0.355
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.28B
EPS	—	1.291
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.7B
EPS	—	1.526

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.11	The bank keeps paying dividends of $0.11 per share and is investing in AI to improve efficiency.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.11 in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.11 dividend per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 32ed77e1-2848-4cca-b0a7-102de7c015ea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of at least $1.01 in FY26	Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $1.28 in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.29 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.01 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.29 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 32ed77e1-2848-4cca-b0a7-102de7c015ea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase total loans to at least $51 billion	Valley Bank is growing deposits and loans steadily, with deposits at $52.9 billion and loans at $50.8 billion as of Q1 2026.	Intact	total loans fall below $50 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow low-cost core deposits to at least $53 billion	Valley Bank is growing deposits and loans steadily, with deposits at $52.9 billion and loans at $50.8 billion as of Q1 2026.	Intact	total deposits fall below $52 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.53

$1.53 → $1.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.70B

$2.50B → $2.70B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.53	$2,498,043,660	14 / 14
2026-07-25	$1.53	$2,499,352,490	14 / 14
2026-07-26	$1.53	$2,499,352,490	14 / 14
2026-07-27	$1.53	$2,498,050,640	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$1.53	$2,498,050,640	14 / 14
2026-07-29	$1.55	$2,498,808,871	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-07-31	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-01	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-02	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-03	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-05	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-08	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-12	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.53	$2,502,280,830	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-15	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-16	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-17	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-18	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-19	$1.55	$2,503,039,061	11 / 10
2026-08-20	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-21	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-22	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-23	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-24	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-25	$1.55	$2,503,036,454	11 / 10
2026-08-26	$1.54	$2,507,920,489	10 / 10
2026-08-27	$1.54	$2,507,920,489	10 / 10
2026-08-28	$1.54	$2,507,920,489	10 / 10
2026-08-29	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	10 / 10
2026-08-30	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	10 / 10
2026-08-31	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	11 / 10
2026-09-01	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	10 / 10
2026-09-03	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	9 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.54	$2,525,124,950	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.54	$2,525,296,181	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.54	$2,525,296,181	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.54	$2,531,033,619	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.54	$2,534,625,665	8 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.54	$2,534,656,435	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.54	$2,537,224,367	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.54	$2,537,224,367	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.54	$2,538,378,213	8 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.54	$2,538,378,213	8 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.54	$2,538,378,213	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.54	$2,538,378,213	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.54	$2,537,313,395	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.54	$2,537,313,395	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.53	$2,595,302,386	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$1.53	$2,621,587,342	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$1.53	$2,621,587,342	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$1.53	$2,621,587,342	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$1.53	$2,621,587,342	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$1.53	$2,660,152,638	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$1.53	$2,671,214,696	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.53	$2,671,214,076	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	8 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.53	$2,682,683,307	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.52	$2,686,777,849	9 / 8
2026-10-24	$1.53	$2,702,146,998	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	3
2026-06-01	11	3
2026-07-01	12	3
2026-08-01	12	3
2026-09-01	11	3
2026-10-01	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Jul 7

$17.00 → $16.00-5.9%

National BankOct 1 · prior Jul 1

$17.50 → $15.50-11.4%

$0$9.63$19.25

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.11Dividend per share: $0.11 per share
Achieve EPS of at least $1.01 in FY26Published status: Broken
Increase total loans to at least $51 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Grow low-cost core deposits to at least $53 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Valley Bank outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VLY is a bank investment whose multi-year view depends on deposit and loan growth, operating efficiency, and successful expansion. The thesis is intact, though recent earnings misses and a sharp drop in company momentum make execution less certain.

What's priced into Valley Bank

The valuation evidence points to VLY being cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of 0.08 and a model confidence rated high. The priced-in assessment says fragility is low and the valuation is justified, rather than reflecting a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Through the third quarter, deposits and loans grew, while the efficiency ratio improved; management is on track with deposit growth but has mixed progress on efficiency. Acquisitions remain pending, and the supplied financials do not yet show integration results. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a sector headwind are risks despite a low estimated miss probability.

What Valley Bank hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on continued deposit and loan growth, better operating efficiency, and evidence that the pending acquisitions can be integrated. Near term, a guidance cut or falling rates would weigh on the setup, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.