VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV (VIST)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-29

$71.58-0.95%

Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+15.5% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.08 → 10.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	1.25B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	3.587
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	4.23B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	9.858
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	4.49B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	10.491

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margins remain around 70%	Vista Energy is expanding its shale operations, targeting 70% adjusted EBITDA margins.	Intact	EBITDA margins fall below 65%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Production levels increase consistently	A primary condition in VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Intact	Production growth falls below 5% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth remains strong	A supporting condition in VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 10% YoY	Revenue growth: 102.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 16, 2026102.263235 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.49

$167.46 → $10.49 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.49B

$4.31B → $4.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-27	$167.46	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$167.46	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$167.48	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-07-31	$167.48	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-08-01	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$167.48	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-08-03	$167.48	$4,314,500,190	8 / 11
2026-08-04	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$178.87	$4,304,480,820	7 / 11
2026-08-10	$178.87	$4,304,480,820	7 / 11
2026-08-12	$178.87	$4,304,480,820	7 / 11
2026-08-13	$178.87	$4,304,480,820	7 / 11
2026-08-14	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$9.94	$4,333,439,071	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$9.92	$4,324,158,968	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$9.92	$4,324,158,968	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$9.92	$4,324,158,968	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$9.59	$4,304,355,238	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$9.59	$4,304,355,238	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.23	$4,226,825,634	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$8.72	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$8.70	$4,183,628,081	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$8.81	$4,206,265,717	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$8.81	$4,206,265,717	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$8.81	$4,206,265,717	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	4 / 6
2026-10-13	$9.08	$4,260,743,869	4 / 6
2026-10-14	$9.56	$4,309,015,213	4 / 6
2026-10-15	$9.56	$4,309,015,213	4 / 6
2026-10-16	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-17	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-18	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-19	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-20	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-21	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-22	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-23	$9.86	$4,356,265,213	4 / 6
2026-10-24	$10.16	$4,402,107,505	4 / 6
2026-10-25	$10.21	$4,394,796,264	4 / 6
2026-10-26	$10.21	$4,394,796,264	4 / 6
2026-10-27	$10.21	$4,394,796,264	4 / 6
2026-10-28	$10.21	$4,426,616,637	4 / 6
2026-10-29	$10.49	$4,491,170,275	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	0	0
2026-06-01	12	0	0
2026-07-01	12	0	0
2026-08-01	12	0	0
2026-09-01	12	0	0
2026-10-01	12	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margins remain around 70%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Production levels increase consistentlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth remains strongRevenue growth: 102.26%

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical Energy exposure, meaning business conditions can move with the wider economy and sector. The long-term thesis is insufficiently established because recent financial-performance history is too limited to assess it, while the near-term record includes consecutive earnings misses.

What's priced into VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV

The evidence does not provide enough valuation detail to describe VIST as cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or to state what earnings expectations are already reflected. The priced-in assessment flags turbulence in the sector but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, continued earnings misses remain a risk, with a 40% estimated chance of a miss at the next report. The broader Energy backdrop is a tailwind, and macro context improved, but the evidence does not establish a multi-year financial trajectory.

What VISTA ENERGY SAB DE CV hinges on

The sector tailwind may persist if bellwethers COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and raise guidance; weaker results or guidance could remove that support. A further weakening in jobs, following a three-month average of 51,000 monthly gains, could also raise recession concerns and weigh on cyclical Energy names.