Vici Properties (VICI)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-15

$23.60+0.60%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vici Properties’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.97 → 2.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
AFFO growth and guidance	It raised its AFFO guidance to about $2.68 billion for 2026.	Broken	AFFO falls below $2.51 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth from operations and acquisitions	A primary condition in Vici Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% YoY revenue growth.	Improving	revenue growth falls below 3% YoY next year	Revenue growth: 5.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20265.709484 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fcdd5e94-c619-4b65-8b3e-e9d3014eaa17. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The $1.16 billion acquisition of seven casino properties from Golden Entertainment was announced in 2025-Q4, expected to close in 2026-Q1, and closed in 2026-Q2. The transaction is complete and integrated under a master lease, delivering on the stated priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Expansion of strategic partnerships	A supporting condition in Vici Properties's published investment case. The stated target is AFFO increase of at least 5% YoY.	Intact	AFFO growth falls below 3% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.97

$2.94 → $2.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.35B

$4.31B → $4.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.94	$4,310,556,624	5 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-07-28	$2.94	$4,310,556,624	5 / 9
2026-07-29	$2.94	$4,310,556,624	5 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-08-01	$2.94	$4,312,977,679	5 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,351,381,390	1 / 12
2026-08-03	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$4,356,475,130	1 / 13
2026-08-05	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-06	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-08	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$4,371,898,970	1 / 13
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$4,371,898,970	1 / 13
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,371,898,970	1 / 13
2026-08-13	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-14	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-15	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-16	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-17	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-18	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-19	$2.95	$4,316,819,785	5 / 10
2026-08-20	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-21	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-22	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-23	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-24	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-25	$2.97	$4,349,471,968	5 / 10
2026-08-26	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-08-27	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-08-28	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-08-29	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-08-30	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-08-31	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-09-01	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-09-02	$2.97	$4,343,924,135	5 / 10
2026-09-03	$2.97	$4,339,713,865	5 / 10
2026-09-04	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-05	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-06	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-07	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-08	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-09	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-10	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-11	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 10
2026-09-12	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 10
2026-09-13	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 10
2026-09-14	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-15	$2.97	$4,339,713,864	5 / 11
2026-09-16	$2.97	$4,340,920,466	5 / 11
2026-09-17	$2.97	$4,340,920,466	5 / 11
2026-09-18	$2.97	$4,340,920,466	5 / 11
2026-09-19	$2.97	$4,340,920,466	5 / 11
2026-09-20	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-21	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-22	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-23	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-24	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-25	$2.97	$4,340,975,520	5 / 11
2026-09-26	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-09-27	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-09-28	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-09-29	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-09-30	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-01	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-02	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-03	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-04	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-05	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-06	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-07	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-08	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-09	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-10	$2.97	$4,340,956,691	5 / 11
2026-10-11	$2.97	$4,348,278,323	5 / 11
2026-10-12	$2.97	$4,348,278,323	5 / 11
2026-10-13	$2.97	$4,348,278,323	5 / 11
2026-10-14	$2.97	$4,348,278,323	5 / 11
2026-10-15	$2.97	$4,348,278,323	5 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	7
2026-06-01	17	8
2026-07-01	17	8
2026-08-01	17	8
2026-09-01	17	9
2026-10-01	16	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankSep 24 · prior Jun 18

$29.00 → $26.00-10.3%

Evercore ISISep 21

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

AFFO growth and guidancePublished status: Broken
Revenue growth from operations and acquisitionsRevenue growth: 5.71%
Expansion of strategic partnershipsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vici Properties outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on real estate, particularly in the gaming sector. The current thesis state is intact, with management executing on key priorities despite some risks in the broader market.

What's priced into Vici Properties

The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market seems to be pricing in some fragility due to weak execution quality, but not to an extreme extent.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with its priorities, including tenant diversification and AFFO growth. Recent results have shown stable performance, although there is a moderate risk of missing future estimates.

What Vici Properties hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any downward guidance from VICI could negatively impact sentiment.