VF Corporation (VFC)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.26-1.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge VF Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.33 → 1.34 EPS · FY ending Mar 28, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	2.91B
EPS	—	0.699
Annual ending 2027-03-28
Revenue	—	9.49B
EPS	—	1.08
Annual ending 2028-03-28
Revenue	—	9.79B
EPS	—	1.339

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce leverage ratio to 2.5x or lower	It is reducing its leverage ratio from 4.1x to 3.1x, targeting 2.5x by FY28.	Intact	Leverage ratio remains above 3.0x at FY28	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. VF reduced its leverage ratio from 4.1x at FYE'25 to 3.1x at FYE'26, showing significant deleveraging progress. The company guides for a leverage ratio of 2.6x to 2.9x at FYE'27 and remains on track to reach 2.5x or lower by FY'28, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Expand operating margin to at least 8%	The company aims to expand profit margins to at least 8% by Q1 FY27.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 7% in FY27 Q1	Operating margin: -4.98% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=8% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026-4.976222 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4aee14b9-7d2f-4d3c-b6ce-56686e4b2131. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. VF returned to revenue growth with adjusted revenue ex Dickies up 4% in FY'26 and expanded adjusted operating margin ex Dickies by 110 bps to 7.0%. FY'27 guidance raised to +2% or better revenue growth with approximately 8% operating margin. The trajectory is delivering with sustained growth and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Return to positive revenue growth	A primary condition in VF Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=1% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY27 Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. VF returned to revenue growth with adjusted revenue ex Dickies up 4% in FY'26 and expanded adjusted operating margin ex Dickies by 110 bps to 7.0%. FY'27 guidance raised to +2% or better revenue growth with approximately 8% operating margin. The trajectory is delivering with sustained growth and margin expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$1.34

$1.35 → $1.34 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$9.79B

$9.79B → $9.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.35	$9,792,016,839	13 / 16
2026-07-25	$1.35	$9,792,016,839	13 / 16
2026-07-26	$1.34	$9,787,761,284	13 / 16
2026-07-27	$1.34	$9,787,761,284	13 / 16
2026-07-28	$1.34	$9,787,761,284	13 / 16
2026-07-29	$1.34	$9,787,761,284	13 / 16
2026-07-30	$1.33	$9,792,076,421	13 / 16
2026-07-31	$1.35	$9,795,398,638	13 / 16
2026-08-01	$1.35	$9,795,398,638	13 / 16
2026-08-02	$1.35	$9,794,463,638	13 / 16
2026-08-03	$1.35	$9,794,463,638	13 / 16
2026-08-04	$1.35	$9,794,463,638	13 / 16
2026-08-05	$1.35	$9,794,463,638	13 / 16
2026-08-06	$1.35	$9,794,463,638	13 / 16
2026-08-08	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-09	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-10	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-12	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-13	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-14	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-15	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-16	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-17	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-18	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-19	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-20	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-21	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-22	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-23	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-24	$1.35	$9,794,443,021	13 / 16
2026-08-25	$1.35	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$1.35	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-27	$1.35	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-28	$1.35	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-29	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-30	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-08-31	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-09-01	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-09-02	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-09-03	$1.32	$9,794,423,891	13 / 16
2026-09-04	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-05	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-06	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-07	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-08	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-09	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-10	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-11	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-12	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-13	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-14	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-15	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-16	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-17	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-18	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-19	$1.32	$9,794,424,036	13 / 16
2026-09-20	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-21	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-22	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-23	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-24	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-25	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-26	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-27	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-28	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-29	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-09-30	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-10-01	$1.33	$9,795,703,844	14 / 17
2026-10-02	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-03	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-04	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-05	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-06	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-07	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-08	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-09	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$1.33	$9,787,332,415	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$1.33	$9,786,066,336	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$1.33	$9,786,066,336	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$1.33	$9,786,066,336	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$1.34	$9,786,690,146	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$1.34	$9,786,690,146	14 / 17
2026-10-16	$1.34	$9,788,961,574	14 / 17
2026-10-17	$1.34	$9,788,961,574	14 / 17
2026-10-18	$1.34	$9,788,961,574	14 / 17
2026-10-19	$1.34	$9,788,961,574	14 / 17
2026-10-20	$1.34	$9,787,960,920	14 / 17
2026-10-21	$1.34	$9,786,328,015	14 / 17
2026-10-22	$1.34	$9,786,756,587	14 / 17
2026-10-23	$1.34	$9,786,756,587	14 / 17
2026-10-24	$1.34	$9,786,756,587	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	9	13	4
2026-06-01	8	12	3
2026-07-01	8	12	3
2026-08-01	8	12	3
2026-09-01	8	14	3
2026-10-01	9	15	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

3 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 19 · prior Jul 30

$16.00 → $17.00+6.3%

Williams TradingOct 15 · prior May 22

$20.00 → $22.00+10.0%

Truist FinancialOct 13

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 13 · prior Oct 1

$16.00 → $20.00+25.0%

$0$12.10$24.20

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce leverage ratio to 2.5x or lowerDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand operating margin to at least 8%Published status: Broken
Return to positive revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

VF Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style multi-year view, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: key operating goals are progressing, but recent results and confidence have weakened.

What's priced into VF Corporation

The evidence describes VFC as cheap, while its valuation is 2.26 times the peer comparison measure and the model has low confidence. Expectations appear justified overall, with no fragility gates triggered, but a 7% expectations gap leaves room for assumptions to be wrong.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, execution remains mixed: VFC recently missed earnings and has a run of consecutive misses, despite low estimated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth, margin expansion, and debt reduction are progressing; guidance calls for at least 2% revenue growth and about 8% operating margin in FY'27.

What VF Corporation hinges on

The main company-specific swing factor is whether VFC can sustain its operating progress and avoid cutting guidance after its recent increase, which would also damage management credibility. Sector signals matter too: continued strength from RL, LEVI, and KTB could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.