Visteon (VC)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$76.37-6.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Visteon’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.47 → 9.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	945.92M
EPS	—	2.422
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	999.56M
EPS	—	1.96
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.82B
EPS	—	6.778
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.24B
EPS	—	9.971

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain balanced capital allocation with $800 million buyback authorization	The company balances capital well, with an $800 million buyback program.	Intact	buyback program is reduced or suspended	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $170 million and $210 million in FY26	Free cash flow is expected near $190 million in 2026.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $170 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $12M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $170M to $210M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 202612,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA near $104 million in 2026-Q1	Free cash flow is expected near $190 million in 2026.	Broken	adjusted EBITDA falls below $90 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth near $3.73 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Visteon's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.73 billion.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $3.62 billion in FY26	Revenue: $970M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.73 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 2026970,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cf03da13-f375-422f-9a60-4a43a1371c07. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 supplied quarters. Revenue was $917 million in 2025-Q3 and $970 million in 2026-Q3, and third-quarter new business wins were $0.9 billion. Revenue growth and named awards provide substantive delivery, while the current quarter's sales were $970 million. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.97

$10.43 → $9.97 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.24B

$4.10B → $4.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.43	$4,096,864,480	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$10.34	$4,093,137,260	12 / 10
2026-07-26	$10.47	$4,110,747,376	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$10.47	$4,110,747,376	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$10.35	$4,093,439,260	12 / 10
2026-07-29	$10.47	$4,110,747,376	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-07-31	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-01	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-04	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-05	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-08	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-10	$10.44	$4,110,322,260	12 / 10
2026-08-12	$10.47	$4,117,188,710	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$10.44	$4,114,163,977	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$10.47	$4,117,112,948	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$10.47	$4,115,712,718	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$10.47	$4,115,712,718	6 / 8
2026-09-18	$10.47	$4,115,712,718	6 / 8
2026-09-19	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$10.47	$4,119,283,990	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$10.46	$4,120,011,404	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$10.46	$4,120,011,404	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$10.46	$4,120,011,404	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$10.46	$4,125,877,904	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$10.46	$4,125,877,904	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$10.43	$4,119,678,393	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$10.35	$4,113,838,393	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$10.35	$4,113,838,393	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$10.35	$4,113,838,393	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$10.35	$4,113,838,393	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$10.34	$4,113,078,393	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$10.34	$4,113,078,393	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$10.33	$4,110,678,393	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$10.33	$4,110,678,393	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$10.33	$4,110,678,393	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$10.33	$4,110,678,393	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$10.25	$4,099,328,393	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$10.25	$4,099,328,393	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$10.25	$4,099,328,393	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$10.04	$4,218,075,352	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$9.97	$4,239,675,352	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	5
2026-06-01	10	4
2026-07-01	9	4
2026-08-01	8	4
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	7	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Oct 7

$107.00 → $96.00-10.3%

Robert W. BairdOct 23

$95.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 22

$103.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Apr 27

$115.00 → $125.00+8.7%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 6

$104.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$68.75$137.50

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain balanced capital allocation with $800 million buyback authorizationDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow between $170 million and $210 million in FY26Free cash flow: $12M
Adjusted EBITDA near $104 million in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Revenue growth near $3.73 billion in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Visteon outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

VC is an automotive technology and components business with a multi-year thesis tied to revenue growth, new business wins, and next-generation cockpit and AI-compute platforms. The thesis is intact, and recent momentum improved, but near-term results are uneven and the evidence confidence is medium.

What's priced into Visteon

The evidence describes VC as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of 0.33 and high model confidence. The priced-in tag is marked unjustified, while no fragility gates fired; this suggests the valuation does not reflect an identified fragility concern, though expectations could still be sensitive to execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Revenue increased from $917 million in 2025-Q3 to $970 million in 2026-Q3, and new business wins and product launches support growth priorities. However, gross margin fell from $131 million to $47 million, with management attributing $77 million of the current-quarter impact to exceptional warranty charges. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 42% miss probability make the next results a key risk, even as the overall signal recently shifted to mildly favorable.

What Visteon hinges on

The next call is a key swing factor: guidance was reaffirmed as of 2026-04-23, and a later cut would weaken the thesis. Over the multi-year view, continued revenue growth, new awards, and scaling new platforms need to be matched by better operating discipline and margins. Sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV also matter as early signals of whether the sector backdrop stays supportive.