Visteon (VC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$99.62-1.03%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA near $104 million in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
Visteon grows revenue steadily with $1 billion new business wins in 2026-Q1. Free cash flow is expected near $190 million in 2026. The company balances capital well, with an $800 million buyback program. Profit margins remain under pressure but management aims to improve them.
Profit margins and cash flow are weak, with adjusted free cash flow negative $23 million in 2026-Q1. Supply chain issues hurt operating income. Revenue growth is slow, and guidance was cut recently, showing risks to execution.
The price is about 32% below our fair value near $156, reflecting a cautious view. Analysts expect 25% revenue growth, which is optimistic given recent guidance cuts and margin pressures.
Breaks if: buyback program is reduced or suspended
Maintain shareholder returns through share repurchase programs while preserving financial flexibility for growth investments.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and new business wins. The current thesis state is stable, but it faces challenges from recent earnings misses and sector pressures.
The market currently prices VC as cheap compared to its peers, with a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be anticipating strong growth or performance improvements in the near term.
Management has shown a commitment to revenue growth and margin improvement, but cash flow has been inconsistent. Recent financial performance has been neutral, and there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue growth while improving cash flow and operating income. Additionally, external factors like inflation and sector performance will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The reason to own VC has weakened. Recent financial performance fell from the 70th to the 47th percentile. The latest earnings report missed expectations, adding to concerns. Investors are now betting on potential interest rate cuts after weak job data.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. The company announced a $200M accelerated share repurchase in 2026-Q2 under an $800M authorization from 2026-Q2. Share repurchases and dividends totaled $40M in 2026-Q1. Management is maintaining balanced capital allocation with active share repurchases aligned with stated priorities.
“Entered into a $200 million accelerated share repurchase agreement under $800 million authorization.”
“Returned $40 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2026-Q1.”
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $170 million in FY26
Improve liquidity through operating cash flow growth and disciplined capital expenditures to support investments and shareholder returns.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow was $37M in 2026-Q2 and $6M in 2026-Q1, down from $118M in 2025-Q4 and $292M for first nine months of 2025. Adjusted free cash flow was negative $3M for first half 2026, compared to positive $292M in 2025. The trajectory shows mixed progress with recent softness in cash flow.
“Operating cash flow of $37 million and adjusted free cash flow of $20 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Operating cash flow of $6 million and adjusted free cash flow of ($23) million in 2026-Q1.”
“Operating cash flow of $118 million in 2025-Q4 and adjusted free cash flow of $292 million for full year 2025.”
“Operating cash flow of $292 million and adjusted free cash flow of $215 million for first nine months of 2025.”
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $90 million in any quarter
Focus on operational discipline, cost control, and margin expansion despite supply chain challenges and industry headwinds.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA ranged from $104M in 2026-Q1 to $119M in 2025-Q3, with margins around 11.6%-12.1%. Operating income showed some fluctuation but remained positive, indicating ongoing operational discipline. Management is delivering margin improvement consistent with stated focus.
“Adjusted EBITDA of $116 million, representing a 12.1% margin, reflecting continued operational discipline.”
“Adjusted EBITDA was $104 million, reflecting solid operational performance in a dynamic supply chain environment.”
“Adjusted EBITDA was $110 million, representing a margin of 11.6%, reflecting continued operating discipline.”
“Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, highlighting continued strong operational execution and cost performance.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $3.62 billion in FY26
Drive long-term growth through new business awards, product launches, and market expansion in digital cockpit and AI-enhanced solutions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. New business wins totaled $1.8B in 2025-Q3, $7.4B in full-year 2025, $1.0B in 2026-Q1, and $2.0B in 2026-Q2, supporting growth momentum. Revenue remained stable around $940M-$970M quarterly. Management is delivering consistent new business growth aligned with stated priorities.
“Visteon secured approximately $2.0 billion in new business during the second quarter, reflecting continued momentum across strategic growth areas.”
“Visteon secured $1.0 billion in new business in the first quarter, led by clusters, cockpit domain controllers, and strategic growth areas.”
“Visteon won a record $7.4 billion of new business in 2025 with strong representation in all digital cockpit product categories.”
“The third quarter included $1.8 billion in new business wins, led by advanced display and SmartCore cockpit domain controller programs.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, VC's performance will depend on its operational execution and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.