U.S. Bancorp (USB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-15

$58.73+2.33%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge U.S. Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.82 → 5.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 19 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase quarterly dividend by ~3.8% in 2026	A supporting condition in U.S. Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is quarterly dividend >= $0.54 starting Q3 2026.	Intact	Dividend cut or no increase in 2026	Dividend per share: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: quarterly dividend >= $0.54 starting Q3 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 028401d5-5098-4d5b-bf6a-6b94e5f89283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver EPS near $5.1 in FY26	A primary condition in U.S. Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.1 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.1 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.35 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 028401d5-5098-4d5b-bf6a-6b94e5f89283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually	A primary condition in U.S. Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.7% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year	Revenue growth: 10.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202610.108509 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 028401d5-5098-4d5b-bf6a-6b94e5f89283. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of acquisitions and new products	Acquisitions and new products support steady growth.	Intact	Acquisitions fail to contribute or cause losses	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.84

$5.82 → $5.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$33.24B

$33.06B → $33.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.82	$33,058,168,633	16 / 10
2026-07-25	$5.82	$33,058,168,633	16 / 10
2026-07-26	$5.78	$33,210,397,859	19 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-07-28	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-07-29	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-07-30	$5.78	$33,210,397,859	19 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-01	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-02	$5.78	$33,210,397,859	19 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.78	$33,210,397,859	19 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-05	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-06	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-08	$5.79	$33,241,535,350	19 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.79	$33,241,535,350	19 / 12
2026-08-10	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-12	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-13	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-14	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-15	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-16	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-17	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-18	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-19	$5.82	$33,061,936,053	16 / 10
2026-08-20	$5.82	$33,019,818,009	16 / 10
2026-08-21	$5.82	$33,019,818,009	16 / 10
2026-08-22	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-23	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-24	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-25	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-26	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-27	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-28	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-29	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-03	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-04	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-05	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-06	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-07	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-08	$5.82	$33,019,798,906	16 / 10
2026-09-09	$5.82	$33,054,189,267	16 / 10
2026-09-10	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-11	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-12	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-13	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-14	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-15	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-16	$5.82	$33,054,190,644	16 / 10
2026-09-17	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-18	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-19	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-20	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-21	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-22	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-23	$5.82	$33,054,212,211	16 / 10
2026-09-24	$5.83	$33,088,619,709	16 / 10
2026-09-25	$5.83	$33,092,858,598	16 / 10
2026-09-26	$5.83	$33,073,550,104	16 / 10
2026-09-27	$5.83	$33,094,997,601	16 / 10
2026-09-28	$5.83	$33,094,997,601	16 / 10
2026-09-29	$5.83	$33,103,028,758	16 / 10
2026-09-30	$5.83	$33,103,028,758	16 / 10
2026-10-01	$5.83	$33,127,173,858	17 / 10
2026-10-02	$5.83	$33,127,173,858	17 / 10
2026-10-03	$5.83	$33,135,248,516	17 / 10
2026-10-04	$5.83	$33,135,248,516	17 / 10
2026-10-05	$5.83	$33,137,217,683	17 / 10
2026-10-06	$5.83	$33,137,217,683	17 / 10
2026-10-07	$5.82	$33,141,844,507	17 / 10
2026-10-08	$5.83	$33,156,081,679	17 / 10
2026-10-09	$5.84	$33,172,340,537	18 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.84	$33,236,026,124	18 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.84	$33,236,026,124	18 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.84	$33,236,026,124	19 / 12
2026-10-13	$5.84	$33,236,026,124	19 / 12
2026-10-14	$5.84	$33,236,026,124	19 / 12
2026-10-15	$5.84	$33,236,031,679	19 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	8	1
2026-06-01	12	10	1
2026-07-01	14	10	1
2026-08-01	14	9	0
2026-09-01	14	9	0
2026-10-01	16	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 5 · prior Jul 7

$66.00 → $64.00-3.0%

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior Jul 17

$69.00 → $67.00-2.9%

HSBCSep 28

$76.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.80$83.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase quarterly dividend by ~3.8% in 2026Dividend per share: $0.52 per share
Deliver EPS near $5.1 in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure
Successful integration of acquisitions and new productsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

U.S. Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent results and management's consistent priorities.

What's priced into U.S. Bancorp

The market seems to have a neutral valuation on USB, with expectations slightly below average compared to peers. There is a low level of fragility priced in, indicating that the market does not fully account for potential execution weaknesses.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to deliver sustainable earnings growth, expand capital markets capabilities, and grow loan and deposit balances. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a low risk of missing expectations in the near term.

What U.S. Bancorp hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on USB's ability to maintain guidance in the next earnings call and the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policy could impact USB's performance.