Unum (UNM)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-10-23

$90.28-3.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Unum’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.45 → 9.43 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.92B
EPS	—	2.188
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	11.86B
EPS	—	8.66
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	12.41B
EPS	—	9.434

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce Closed Block long-term care statutory reserves by at least $7 billion cumulatively	Unum is cutting risk by reducing long-term care reserves by $7.8 billion.	Improving	cumulative LTC reserve reduction falls below $7 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has executed reinsurance transactions reducing long-term care statutory reserves by approximately $7 billion cumulatively, including a $3.8 billion transaction announced in 2026-Q2. This materially reduces the Closed Block risk profile as planned, indicating delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly dividend increases to at least $0.505 per share	The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.505 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.50	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 4 quarters. The board authorized a quarterly dividend increase to $0.505 per share effective Q3 2026. Dividend payments totaled $78 million in 2026-Q1 and $73.5 million in 2026-Q2, indicating delivering progress on increasing dividends. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income grows to at least $303 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $218 million to $303 million in one quarter.	Intact	operating income falls below $218 million	Operating income: $329.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $303 million in Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 2026329,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted operating income in core segments grew from $289.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $329.6 million in 2026-Q2, with premium income rising from $1.75 billion to $1.86 billion over the same period. Management's statements and financials show delivering progress on maintaining strong operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 8.6% year over year	Revenue grew 8.6% year over year in the latest quarter.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 0%	Revenue growth: 0.26% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.255846 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fa61b9d5-6efc-441f-a7c7-01839c445199. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted operating income in core segments grew from $289.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $329.6 million in 2026-Q2, with premium income rising from $1.75 billion to $1.86 billion over the same period. Management's statements and financials show delivering progress on maintaining strong operating income growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.43

$9.63 → $9.43 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$12.41B

$12.19B → $12.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.63	$12,188,574,752	8 / 5
2026-07-25	$9.63	$12,188,574,752	8 / 5
2026-07-26	$9.63	$12,188,574,752	8 / 5
2026-07-27	$9.63	$12,188,574,752	8 / 5
2026-07-28	$9.67	$12,428,397,300	13 / 6
2026-07-29	$9.64	$12,425,146,460	13 / 6
2026-07-30	$9.56	$12,178,196,424	8 / 5
2026-07-31	$9.58	$12,697,979,800	13 / 6
2026-08-01	$9.56	$12,360,085,313	8 / 5
2026-08-02	$9.58	$12,697,979,800	13 / 6
2026-08-03	$9.56	$12,360,085,313	8 / 5
2026-08-04	$9.58	$12,697,979,800	13 / 6
2026-08-05	$9.56	$12,685,325,720	13 / 6
2026-08-06	$9.56	$12,360,085,313	8 / 5
2026-08-08	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-09	$9.51	$12,687,159,060	13 / 6
2026-08-10	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-12	$9.50	$12,718,090,870	13 / 5
2026-08-13	$9.50	$12,718,090,870	13 / 5
2026-08-14	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-15	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-16	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-17	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-18	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-19	$9.53	$12,360,601,355	8 / 5
2026-08-20	$9.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-21	$9.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-22	$9.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-23	$9.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-24	$9.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-25	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-26	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-27	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-28	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-29	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-30	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-31	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-01	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-02	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-03	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-04	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-05	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-06	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-07	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-08	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-09	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-10	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-11	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-12	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-13	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-14	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-15	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-16	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-17	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-18	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-19	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-20	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-21	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-22	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-23	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-24	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-25	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-26	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-27	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-28	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-29	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-30	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-01	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-02	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-03	$9.46	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-04	$9.46	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-05	$9.46	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-06	$9.45	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-07	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-08	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-09	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-10	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-11	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-12	$9.43	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-13	$9.43	$12,414,828,702	8 / 5
2026-10-14	$9.43	$12,414,828,702	8 / 5
2026-10-15	$9.43	$12,414,828,702	8 / 5
2026-10-16	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-17	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-18	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-19	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-20	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-21	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-22	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-23	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5
2026-10-24	$9.43	$12,413,624,497	8 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	4
2026-06-01	9	4
2026-07-01	9	4
2026-08-01	9	4
2026-09-01	9	4
2026-10-01	9	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 6

$110.00 → $109.00-0.9%

$0$60.50$121.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce Closed Block long-term care statutory reserves by at least $7 billion cumulativelyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Quarterly dividend increases to at least $0.505 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Operating income grows to at least $303 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $329.5M
Revenue grows at least 8.6% year over yearRevenue growth: 0.26%

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-11.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Unum outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an established financial business with a multi-year view supported by operating income growth, capital returns, and progress reducing long-term care exposure. The thesis is on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort, even though management priorities remain on track.

What's priced into Unum

UNM trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with fundamentals and priced-in fragility as low. This suggests the market is not assuming a large gap between expectations and delivery, but the premium leaves execution and sector conditions important.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, operating income growth and rising premium income provide support, and management has reduced long-term care statutory reserves through reinsurance transactions. A recent earnings beat and new repurchase authorization are positive signals, but performance remains below the industry cohort and the risk label recently moved to moderate.

What Unum hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued execution in the core businesses and further progress on the Closed Block long-term care strategy. Near term, a guidance cut or rate reductions would be negative risks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.