Uniti Group (UNIT)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.07-2.31%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Uniti Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	906.24M
EPS	—	-0.405
FY 2026 · Annual
Fiber Infrastructure New Bookings Monthly Recurring revenue	About $2.2M	—
Revenue	$3.63B–$3.68B	3.66B
EPS	—	-1.985
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.63B
EPS	—	-2.214

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $1.425 to $1.475 billion in 2026	The company targets adjusted EBITDA near $1.45 billion.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.425 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $237.8 million in 2025-Q1 to $357.1 million in 2026-Q2. Management raised full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1,425-$1,475 million to $1,450-$1,500 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering growth aligned with guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage net loss within $400 to $450 million in 2026	It manages net loss within $400 to $450 million.	Broken	Net loss exceeds $450 million in 2026	Net income: $-155.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net loss between $400 million and $450 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-155,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a70a6598-a430-417f-8ff4-a7ecf2259b70. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve 2026 revenue of $3.6 to $3.65 billion	A primary condition in Uniti Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.605 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $3.6 billion in 2026	Revenue: $909.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.605 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026909,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a70a6598-a430-417f-8ff4-a7ecf2259b70. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.21

$-1.62 → $-2.21 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.63B

$3.63B → $3.63B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.62	$3,628,330,240	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$-1.62	$3,628,330,240	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$-1.75	$3,627,579,067	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$-1.62	$3,628,330,240	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$-1.62	$3,628,330,240	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$-1.62	$3,628,330,240	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$-1.78	$3,622,849,628	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$-1.93	$3,624,773,045	6 / 6
2026-08-01	$-1.93	$3,624,773,045	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$-1.95	$3,626,108,200	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$-1.95	$3,626,108,200	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$-1.95	$3,626,070,700	8 / 8
2026-08-06	$-1.95	$3,626,070,700	8 / 8
2026-08-08	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-09	$-1.95	$3,626,070,700	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$-1.95	$3,626,070,700	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$-1.95	$3,626,070,700	8 / 8
2026-08-14	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$-2.06	$3,623,603,188	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$-2.11	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$-2.23	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$-2.23	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$-2.23	$3,631,434,114	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$-2.21	$3,628,006,467	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	5	2
2026-06-01	2	5	2
2026-07-01	2	5	3
2026-08-01	2	5	3
2026-09-01	2	6	2
2026-10-01	3	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Raymond JamesSep 29

$16.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$8.80$17.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $1.425 to $1.475 billion in 2026Published status: Broken
Manage net loss within $400 to $450 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Achieve 2026 revenue of $3.6 to $3.65 billionRevenue: $909.7M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Uniti Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

UNIT is a higher-risk, execution-dependent growth business rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, and its signal has shifted from cautious to mixed, but the evidence confidence is medium.

What's priced into Uniti Group

The valuation evidence describes UNIT as cheap versus peers, while the model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with no fragility gates triggered, so the evidence does not point to especially fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA priorities are on track, and both guidance ranges were raised in the second quarter. Net loss remains a mixed area, while the recent earnings miss and elevated risk of another miss temper the positive operating trend.

What Uniti Group hinges on

The near-term thesis is sensitive to the next call: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the current risk assessment flags an elevated chance of a miss. Over the multi-year view, rate cuts and continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, which is currently a headwind.