UL Solutions (ULS)

NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$73.44-0.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge UL Solutions’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.60 → 2.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	828.51M
EPS	—	0.605
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.22B
EPS	—	2.317
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.46B
EPS	—	2.601

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 27%	A primary condition in UL Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >=27.0%.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
E&E business revenue of $200 million	A primary condition in UL Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >=200 million USD.	Broken	E&E revenue falls below $180 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Mid-single digit organic revenue growth	A primary condition in UL Solutions's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY.	Intact	Organic revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $739 million in 2024-Q4 to $816 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting a 10.4% increase. Organic revenue growth was 6.6% in 2026-Q2 and 5.7% in 2026-Q1, consistent with management's mid-single digit growth target. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.60

$2.58 → $2.60 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.46B

$3.44B → $3.46B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.58	$3,443,116,640	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$2.58	$3,443,116,640	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$2.58	$3,443,074,661	8 / 9
2026-07-27	$2.58	$3,439,998,494	7 / 9
2026-07-28	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$2.58	$3,439,998,494	7 / 9
2026-08-02	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$2.58	$3,440,033,310	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$2.58	$3,439,998,494	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-09	$2.60	$3,446,355,000	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.60	$3,446,021,670	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.60	$3,445,426,073	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.60	$3,445,406,590	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.60	$3,445,009,406	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.60	$3,463,537,095	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	5	1
2026-06-01	7	5	1
2026-07-01	8	5	1
2026-08-01	8	5	1
2026-09-01	8	5	0
2026-10-01	8	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 12 · prior May 6

$110.00 → $97.00-11.8%

$0$60.50$121.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin near 27%Published status: Broken
E&E business revenue of $200 millionPublished status: Broken
Mid-single digit organic revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

UL Solutions outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ULS is a growth-oriented industrial business with robust earnings quality, supported by steady organic revenue growth and margin improvement. Its multi-year view is intact, though the risk level is elevated and management execution is neutral overall.

What's priced into UL Solutions

ULS trades at a 1.58-times premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and describes the expectations gap as 0.28. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, but fragility is low, so the evidence points to a premium without a clear signal that expectations are unusually fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been mixed: ULS missed earnings in August after a beat in May, though company momentum improved and the thesis remains intact. Organic growth was 6.6% in 2026-Q2, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 26.8%, near management’s approximately 27% 2026 goal. The Eurofins acquisition closed on October 1 and is expected to add about $200 million in 2026 revenue, while a guidance cut remains a key near-term risk.

What UL Solutions hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on sustaining mid-single-digit organic growth, improving margins, and integrating the acquired business. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers CTAS, CPRT, and ROL would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from them would weaken it.