UBS GROUP AG (UBS)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-29

$47.69-0.91%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge UBS GROUP AG’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.25 → 4.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	13.05B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.894
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	53.43B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	3.642
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	No annual guidance published	54.99B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	4.218

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
earnings per share reach about $3.31	Earnings per share are rising to $3.31 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.0 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
stable leadership supports US market growth	A supporting condition in UBS GROUP AG's published investment case. The stated target is stable leadership with positive US growth.	Intact	leadership changes cause negative US growth or valuation cuts	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
total revenue reaches about $41.8 billion	UBS is growing revenue to about $42 billion this year.	Intact	total revenue falls below ~$40B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.22

$4.14 → $4.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$54.99B

$43.88B → $54.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.14	$43,878,462,250	3 / 12
2026-07-25	$4.14	$43,878,462,250	3 / 12
2026-07-26	$4.14	$43,878,462,250	3 / 12
2026-07-27	$4.14	$44,028,492,830	3 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.14	$44,028,492,830	3 / 12
2026-07-29	$4.14	$44,028,492,830	3 / 12
2026-07-30	$4.14	$44,028,492,830	3 / 12
2026-07-31	$4.14	$44,028,492,830	3 / 12
2026-08-01	$4.22	$54,695,996,862	3 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.12	$44,229,939,420	3 / 12
2026-08-03	$4.12	$44,229,939,420	3 / 12
2026-08-04	$4.12	$44,229,939,420	3 / 12
2026-08-05	$4.08	$44,448,127,500	3 / 12
2026-08-06	$4.22	$54,672,550,847	3 / 7
2026-08-08	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-09	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-10	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-12	$4.08	$44,533,994,420	3 / 12
2026-08-13	$4.08	$44,533,994,420	3 / 12
2026-08-14	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 8
2026-08-19	$4.24	$54,885,150,847	3 / 8
2026-08-20	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.25	$54,991,564,444	3 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.25	$55,010,534,275	3 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.25	$55,010,534,275	3 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.25	$55,010,534,275	3 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.25	$55,010,534,275	3 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.25	$55,010,534,275	3 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-17	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-18	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-19	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-20	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-21	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-22	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-23	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-24	$4.26	$55,051,867,608	3 / 8
2026-09-25	$4.23	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.23	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.23	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.23	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.25	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.25	$54,964,169,486	3 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.25	$54,955,812,343	3 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.25	$54,955,812,343	3 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.23	$54,964,373,128	3 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.23	$54,964,373,128	3 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.23	$54,964,373,128	3 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.23	$54,974,757,699	3 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.23	$54,951,734,358	3 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.24	$54,969,162,930	3 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.24	$54,969,162,930	3 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.24	$54,969,162,930	3 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.23	$54,953,779,338	3 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.23	$54,953,779,338	3 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.23	$54,953,779,338	3 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-15	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-16	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-17	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-18	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-19	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-20	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-21	$4.23	$54,899,779,338	3 / 8
2026-10-22	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 8
2026-10-23	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 8
2026-10-24	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 8
2026-10-25	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 7
2026-10-26	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 7
2026-10-27	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 7
2026-10-28	$4.22	$55,147,650,499	3 / 7
2026-10-29	$4.22	$54,991,027,687	3 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

earnings per share reach about $3.31Direct metric needs a verified mapping
stable leadership supports US market growthQualitative condition
total revenue reaches about $41.8 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

UBS GROUP AG outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-sector exposure rather than a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent company financial history to assess it, and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into UBS GROUP AG

The evidence gives no valuation comparison or specific market expectations, so whether UBS looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Fragility is rated low, with no flagged concentration of risk in the current regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the estimated earnings-miss risk is low, but the evidence notes that UBS and industry peers have been missing lately and that misses have been consecutive. Over the multi-year view, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the snapshot does not provide enough company-specific results or management execution detail to establish a fundamental trend.

What UBS GROUP AG hinges on

A shift to rate cuts from the current rate setting could weigh on UBS and other financial companies, while the evidence says the sector usually does better when rates stay high. Earnings and guidance from JPM, BAC, and HSBC are useful sector signals: continued strength could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.