Uber (UBER)

NYSEIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$70.35-1.29%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Uber’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.45 → 4.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 29 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 30 to 29; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase Adjusted EBITDA to at least $2.48 billion	Profit measured by Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.5 billion.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $1.87 billion (2025-Q1 level)	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand Free Cash Flow to at least $2.29 billion	Free cash flow is positive at $2.3 billion, showing operational strength.	Intact	Free Cash Flow falls below $2.25 billion (2025-Q1 level)	Free cash flow: $2.792B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.29 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20262,792,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Grow Gross Bookings to at least $53.7 billion	Uber grows gross bookings 25% yearly to $53.7 billion.	Intact	Gross Bookings fall below $42.8 billion (2025-Q1 level)	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Gross Bookings increased from $46.8 billion in 2025-Q2 to $58.0 billion in 2026-Q2 (+22% YoY), Trips grew from 3.3 billion to 3.9 billion (+18% YoY), and Monthly Active Platform Consumers rose from 180 million to 208 million (+16% YoY). Management's focus on platform growth is supported by consistent delivery of volume and consumer engagement expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage regulatory challenges and resume growth in Europe	A supporting condition in Uber's published investment case. The stated target is No material regulatory setbacks and resumption of Europe expansion within 12 months.	Improving	Significant regulatory fines or prolonged Europe expansion halt beyond 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.44

$4.53 → $4.44 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$66.80B

$67.07B → $66.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.53	$67,065,038,069	38 / 44
2026-07-25	$4.53	$67,082,103,890	38 / 45
2026-07-26	$4.53	$67,082,103,890	38 / 45
2026-07-27	$4.48	$67,017,943,553	29 / 34
2026-07-28	$4.48	$67,017,943,553	29 / 34
2026-07-29	$4.54	$67,092,183,690	37 / 45
2026-07-30	$4.54	$67,092,183,690	37 / 45
2026-07-31	$4.52	$67,102,043,490	38 / 47
2026-08-01	$4.48	$67,025,949,217	29 / 35
2026-08-02	$4.52	$67,102,043,490	38 / 47
2026-08-03	$4.52	$67,102,043,490	38 / 47
2026-08-04	$4.52	$67,102,043,490	38 / 47
2026-08-05	$4.48	$67,025,949,217	30 / 36
2026-08-06	$4.52	$67,136,844,249	37 / 47
2026-08-08	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-09	$4.62	$67,008,685,780	38 / 48
2026-08-10	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-12	$4.62	$66,784,027,449	39 / 48
2026-08-13	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-14	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-15	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-16	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-17	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-18	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-19	$4.45	$67,112,805,674	29 / 35
2026-08-20	$4.44	$66,792,281,072	30 / 37
2026-08-21	$4.44	$66,792,281,072	30 / 37
2026-08-22	$4.42	$66,790,828,594	30 / 37
2026-08-23	$4.42	$66,790,828,594	30 / 37
2026-08-24	$4.42	$66,790,828,594	30 / 37
2026-08-25	$4.42	$66,799,696,689	30 / 37
2026-08-26	$4.42	$66,803,888,179	30 / 37
2026-08-27	$4.42	$66,803,888,179	30 / 37
2026-08-28	$4.42	$66,803,888,179	30 / 37
2026-08-29	$4.42	$66,809,411,342	30 / 37
2026-08-30	$4.42	$66,809,411,342	30 / 37
2026-08-31	$4.42	$66,809,411,342	30 / 37
2026-09-01	$4.42	$66,809,411,342	30 / 37
2026-09-02	$4.42	$66,829,490,701	30 / 37
2026-09-03	$4.42	$66,829,490,701	31 / 37
2026-09-04	$4.41	$66,846,295,652	31 / 37
2026-09-05	$4.41	$66,846,295,652	31 / 37
2026-09-06	$4.41	$66,846,295,652	31 / 37
2026-09-07	$4.41	$66,846,295,652	31 / 37
2026-09-08	$4.41	$66,846,288,063	31 / 37
2026-09-09	$4.42	$66,819,885,072	30 / 37
2026-09-10	$4.44	$66,801,885,072	30 / 37
2026-09-11	$4.44	$66,803,588,573	30 / 37
2026-09-12	$4.45	$66,826,048,574	30 / 36
2026-09-13	$4.45	$66,826,048,574	30 / 36
2026-09-14	$4.45	$66,826,048,574	30 / 36
2026-09-15	$4.45	$66,826,048,574	30 / 36
2026-09-16	$4.45	$66,826,048,574	30 / 36
2026-09-17	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	30 / 36
2026-09-18	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	30 / 36
2026-09-19	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	30 / 36
2026-09-20	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	29 / 35
2026-09-21	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	29 / 35
2026-09-22	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	29 / 35
2026-09-23	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	29 / 36
2026-09-24	$4.42	$66,818,233,238	30 / 36
2026-09-25	$4.43	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-09-26	$4.43	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-09-27	$4.43	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-09-28	$4.43	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-09-29	$4.43	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-09-30	$4.44	$66,832,003,838	30 / 36
2026-10-01	$4.44	$66,823,226,859	30 / 36
2026-10-02	$4.44	$66,823,226,859	30 / 36
2026-10-03	$4.44	$66,823,226,859	30 / 36
2026-10-04	$4.43	$66,812,118,086	29 / 35
2026-10-05	$4.44	$66,805,430,586	29 / 35
2026-10-06	$4.44	$66,805,430,586	29 / 35
2026-10-07	$4.44	$66,805,430,586	29 / 35
2026-10-08	$4.44	$66,805,424,516	29 / 35
2026-10-09	$4.44	$66,805,424,516	29 / 36
2026-10-10	$4.44	$66,805,424,516	29 / 36
2026-10-11	$4.44	$66,795,561,348	29 / 36
2026-10-12	$4.44	$66,795,562,016	29 / 36
2026-10-13	$4.44	$66,795,563,270	29 / 36
2026-10-14	$4.44	$66,795,562,513	29 / 36
2026-10-15	$4.44	$66,795,562,513	29 / 36

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	46	8	1
2026-06-01	47	6	1
2026-07-01	46	6	1
2026-08-01	44	7	1
2026-09-01	44	8	1
2026-10-01	42	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 42 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Aug 6

$89.00 → $92.00+3.4%

$0$50.60$101.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase Adjusted EBITDA to at least $2.48 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
Expand Free Cash Flow to at least $2.29 billionFree cash flow: $2.792B
Grow Gross Bookings to at least $53.7 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage regulatory challenges and resume growth in EuropeDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Uber outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on profitable growth and market expansion. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management's commitment to growth.

What's priced into Uber

The market currently prices UBER as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that it may not fully reflect the potential for future earnings growth. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be cautious about the company's future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, with management focused on increasing Adjusted EBITDA and gross bookings. However, there is an elevated risk due to the potential for guidance cuts and recent volatility in earnings surprises.

What Uber hinges on

The thesis hinges on UBER's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and successfully integrate recent acquisitions. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial, as their results could influence UBER's momentum in the market.