United Airlines Holdings (UAL)

NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$96.10-5.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge United Airlines Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-13.8% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.95 → 12.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Reduce scheduled domestic capacity by 4 points	A supporting condition in United Airlines Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is 4 percentage points reduction.	Intact	Capacity reduction target not met by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $1.25 next quarter	Profit per share is expected near $1.25 next quarter.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance midpoint falls below $1.0 next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow at least $2.7 billion in 2026	Free cash flow should stay around $2.7 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $2.0 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Free cash flow was $2.7 billion in 2025 and $322 million generated in 2026-Q2. Management reiterates expectation to generate similar free cash flow in 2026 as in 2025, showing consistent focus and delivery on cash generation. Delivery assessment Oct 13, 2026
Maintain about 10% revenue growth	A primary condition in United Airlines Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Revenue growth: 15.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 16, 202615.988448 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ac8ba3ee-8a41-4a77-b865-49707c190a00. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.89

$15.50 → $12.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$72.77B

$71.13B → $72.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$15.50	$71,128,641,430	23 / 22
2026-07-25	$15.50	$71,128,641,430	23 / 22
2026-07-26	$15.50	$71,128,641,430	23 / 22
2026-07-27	$15.46	$71,152,554,740	23 / 22
2026-07-28	$15.47	$71,154,281,968	13 / 17
2026-07-29	$15.47	$71,154,281,968	13 / 17
2026-07-30	$15.47	$71,154,281,968	13 / 17
2026-07-31	$15.46	$71,152,554,740	23 / 22
2026-08-01	$15.47	$71,154,281,968	13 / 17
2026-08-02	$15.46	$71,152,554,740	23 / 22
2026-08-03	$15.47	$71,154,279,508	13 / 17
2026-08-04	$15.47	$71,154,279,508	13 / 17
2026-08-05	$15.46	$71,152,554,740	23 / 22
2026-08-06	$15.46	$71,152,554,740	23 / 22
2026-08-08	$15.46	$71,152,550,650	23 / 22
2026-08-09	$15.46	$71,152,550,650	23 / 22
2026-08-10	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$15.46	$71,152,550,650	23 / 22
2026-08-13	$15.46	$71,152,550,650	23 / 22
2026-08-14	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-17	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-18	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-19	$15.47	$71,163,102,342	13 / 17
2026-08-20	$15.26	$71,050,666,408	13 / 18
2026-08-21	$15.16	$70,950,808,449	13 / 18
2026-08-22	$15.16	$70,951,899,358	13 / 18
2026-08-23	$15.16	$70,951,899,358	13 / 18
2026-08-24	$15.16	$70,951,899,358	13 / 18
2026-08-25	$14.99	$71,007,217,540	13 / 17
2026-08-26	$15.09	$71,107,075,501	13 / 17
2026-08-27	$15.09	$71,107,075,501	13 / 17
2026-08-28	$15.09	$71,107,075,501	13 / 17
2026-08-29	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-08-30	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-08-31	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-09-01	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-09-02	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-09-03	$15.06	$71,111,211,864	13 / 17
2026-09-04	$14.98	$71,150,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-05	$14.98	$71,150,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-06	$14.98	$71,150,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-07	$14.98	$71,150,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-08	$14.98	$71,150,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-09	$14.91	$71,198,978,238	13 / 17
2026-09-10	$14.84	$71,272,906,076	13 / 17
2026-09-11	$14.84	$71,272,896,985	13 / 17
2026-09-12	$14.77	$71,272,896,985	13 / 17
2026-09-13	$14.77	$71,272,896,985	13 / 17
2026-09-14	$14.77	$71,272,896,985	13 / 17
2026-09-15	$14.95	$71,516,653,985	13 / 17
2026-09-16	$14.95	$71,516,653,985	13 / 17
2026-09-17	$14.79	$71,516,653,985	13 / 17
2026-09-18	$14.79	$71,516,653,985	13 / 17
2026-09-19	$14.79	$71,516,653,985	13 / 17
2026-09-20	$14.75	$71,626,837,776	13 / 17
2026-09-21	$14.75	$71,626,837,776	13 / 17
2026-09-22	$14.75	$71,626,837,776	13 / 17
2026-09-23	$14.75	$71,626,837,776	13 / 17
2026-09-24	$14.75	$71,626,837,776	13 / 17
2026-09-25	$14.66	$71,634,222,589	13 / 17
2026-09-26	$14.66	$71,634,222,589	13 / 17
2026-09-27	$14.50	$71,805,584,864	13 / 17
2026-09-28	$14.50	$71,805,584,864	13 / 17
2026-09-29	$14.27	$71,898,378,612	13 / 17
2026-09-30	$14.27	$71,898,378,612	13 / 17
2026-10-01	$14.23	$72,010,950,040	13 / 16
2026-10-02	$14.23	$72,010,950,040	13 / 16
2026-10-03	$13.89	$72,283,367,795	13 / 16
2026-10-04	$13.89	$72,283,367,795	13 / 16
2026-10-05	$13.89	$72,283,367,795	13 / 16
2026-10-06	$13.80	$72,410,686,065	13 / 16
2026-10-07	$13.56	$72,596,238,551	13 / 16
2026-10-08	$13.20	$72,712,359,102	13 / 16
2026-10-09	$12.89	$72,760,010,928	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$12.89	$72,760,010,928	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$12.89	$72,760,010,928	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$12.89	$72,760,010,928	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$12.89	$72,766,053,785	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$12.89	$72,766,053,785	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$12.89	$72,766,053,785	13 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	2	0
2026-06-01	24	2	1
2026-07-01	24	2	1
2026-08-01	23	2	1
2026-09-01	23	2	1
2026-10-01	23	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 6 · prior Jun 30

$165.00 → $160.00-3.0%

BMO CapitalSep 28 · prior Apr 23

$130.00 → $140.00+7.7%

UBSSep 24 · prior Sep 10

$137.00 → $146.00+6.6%

Redburn PartnersSep 18

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$90.75$181.50

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Reduce scheduled domestic capacity by 4 pointsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
EPS near $1.25 next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow at least $2.7 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain about 10% revenue growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

United Airlines Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable long-term thesis in the airline sector, focusing on customer growth and brand loyalty. The current state reflects a mixed execution on free cash flow generation while management remains committed to enhancing customer experience.

What's priced into United Airlines Holdings

The valuation suggests that UAL is considered cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully account for its recent improvements in financial performance. The current pricing reflects a low fragility tier, suggesting stability despite sector headwinds.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued improvement, supported by management's focus on customer investments and brand loyalty. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, especially given the recent history of misses in the industry.

What United Airlines Holdings hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like DAL, RYAAY, and LUV, which could impact UAL's momentum. Positive earnings and guidance from these peers could bolster UAL, while negative trends could pose risks to its growth outlook.