Under Armour (Class C) (UA)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.56-3.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Under Armour (Class C)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	0.044
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.73B
EPS	$0.08–$0.12non-GAAP	0.108
Operating income	$140M–$160Mnon-GAAP $96M–$116M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.81B
EPS	—	0.188

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin increases to about 47.5%	Gross margin is targeted to increase to about 47.5% next quarter.	Improving	gross margin falls below 47.2% in 2026-Q4	Gross margin: 54.09% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= 47.2% and <= 47.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202654.086656 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70dd0cc1-1bda-41d4-bc00-35188b8e7de9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to $96-$116 million	The company aims to raise operating income to $116 million in fiscal Q4 2026.	Under Pressure	operating income falls below $96 million in 2026-Q4	Operating income: $46.739M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $96 million and <= $116 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202646,739,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70dd0cc1-1bda-41d4-bc00-35188b8e7de9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved from an adjusted $3 million in 2026-Q1 to $52 million in 2026-Q2. Management targets fiscal 2027 operating income of $96 million to $116 million, reflecting delivery on disciplined expense management and transformation efforts. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Restructuring plan advances to improve financial efficiency	Under Armour is working on a restructuring plan to improve costs.	Under Pressure	restructuring efforts stall or reverse	Qualitative: Restructuring plan updated May 2026 to increase charges from $255M; recent partnership losses and bearish reports threaten execution. May 2026 restructuring update increased charges; August 2026 saw partnership losses and bearish reports challenging financial health. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes or grows modestly	A primary condition in Under Armour (Class C)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= -1% YoY.	Broken	revenue declines more than 1% year-over-year in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$4.81B

$5.08B → $4.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$5,078,479,902	1 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$5,080,360,810	— / 23
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$5,080,360,810	— / 23
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$5,078,479,902	1 / 12
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$5,080,360,810	— / 23
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$5,078,479,902	1 / 12
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$5,078,479,902	1 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$5,080,272,470	— / 23
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$5,078,367,013	1 / 12
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$5,080,272,470	— / 23
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$5,078,367,013	1 / 12
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$5,078,367,013	1 / 12
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$5,081,202,900	— / 23
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$5,078,367,013	1 / 12
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$5,080,961,820	— / 23
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$4,866,571,850	— / 23
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$4,866,571,850	— / 23
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$5,079,227,026	1 / 12
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$4,846,221,421	1 / 12
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$4,846,221,421	1 / 12
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$4,846,221,421	1 / 12
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$4,846,221,421	1 / 12
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$4,846,221,421	1 / 12
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$4,846,223,754	1 / 12
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$4,838,768,321	1 / 12
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$4,818,172,169	1 / 12
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 12
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$4,815,047,888	1 / 13
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 13
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 13
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 13
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 12
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 12
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 12
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$4,813,996,075	1 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Monthly analyst history is unavailable.

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin increases to about 47.5%Gross margin: 54.09%
Operating income improves to $96-$116 millionPublished status: Under Pressure
Restructuring plan advances to improve financial efficiencyPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue stabilizes or grows modestlyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Under Armour (Class C) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround thesis, centered on cost control and better margins rather than a proven earnings compounder. The multi-year view remains uncertain: management is advancing its restructuring, but recent performance is weak and earnings are loss-making overall.

What's priced into Under Armour (Class C)

UA appears cheap versus peers, while the valuation signal has improved recently; confidence in that comparison is low. The evidence tags pricing as justified and shows no fragility flags, but does not specify exactly what earnings recovery the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain uneven: UA missed its most recent quarter and has had erratic earnings surprises, with a 42% estimated chance of a miss. Management has raised the restructuring cost estimate, with the plan expected to be substantially complete by December 31, 2026; operating income improved in the latest quarter, while gross margin benefited from tariff refunds and pricing. The fiscal 2027 operating income and gross-margin goals show a path management is pursuing, but delivery is not yet established.

What Under Armour (Class C) hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add pressure to an already weak earnings picture. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether restructuring and expense discipline improve operating results and whether margin gains persist beyond tariff refunds. Sector bellwethers such as RL, LEVI, and VFC are also useful signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that tailwind.