Texas Instruments (TXN)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$276.48-0.95%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Texas Instruments’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.27 → 10.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 23 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS rises to $1.91 in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.91.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $1.77 in Q2 2026	Diluted EPS: $2.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.91. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20262.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 748c933a-3a09-4d82-a8e8-3fee325b67eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve operational synergies from Silicon Labs acquisition	A supporting condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is $450 million synergy target.	Intact	Synergies fail to reach $450 million by 2029	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to $5.2 billion in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Texas Instruments's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.2B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $5.0 billion in Q2 2026	Revenue: $5.463B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20265,463,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 748c933a-3a09-4d82-a8e8-3fee325b67eb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.27

$10.10 → $10.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$24.98B

$24.80B → $24.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.10	$24,801,140,946	21 / 24
2026-07-25	$10.03	$24,739,456,060	28 / 33
2026-07-26	$10.15	$24,835,753,850	22 / 25
2026-07-27	$10.15	$24,835,753,850	22 / 25
2026-07-28	$10.15	$24,835,753,850	22 / 25
2026-07-29	$10.15	$24,835,753,850	22 / 25
2026-07-30	$10.03	$24,771,971,210	28 / 33
2026-07-31	$10.03	$24,824,395,450	28 / 33
2026-08-01	$10.15	$24,835,753,850	22 / 25
2026-08-02	$10.15	$24,891,560,301	22 / 25
2026-08-03	$10.03	$24,824,395,450	28 / 33
2026-08-04	$10.15	$24,891,560,301	22 / 25
2026-08-05	$10.15	$24,891,560,301	22 / 25
2026-08-06	$10.03	$24,824,395,450	28 / 33
2026-08-08	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-09	$10.03	$24,824,395,450	28 / 33
2026-08-10	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-12	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-13	$10.03	$24,824,395,450	28 / 33
2026-08-14	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-15	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-16	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-17	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-18	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-19	$10.22	$24,984,598,943	22 / 25
2026-08-20	$10.22	$24,981,151,212	22 / 25
2026-08-21	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-22	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-23	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-24	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-25	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-26	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-27	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-28	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-29	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-30	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-08-31	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-01	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-02	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-03	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-04	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-05	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-06	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-07	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-08	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-09	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-10	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-11	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-12	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-13	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-14	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-15	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-16	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-17	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-18	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-19	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-20	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-21	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-22	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	22 / 25
2026-09-23	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-24	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-25	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-26	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-27	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-28	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-29	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-09-30	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	22 / 25
2026-10-01	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	23 / 25
2026-10-02	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	23 / 25
2026-10-03	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	23 / 25
2026-10-04	$10.28	$24,976,507,094	23 / 25
2026-10-05	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-06	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-07	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-08	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-09	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-10	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-11	$10.28	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-12	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-13	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-14	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25
2026-10-15	$10.27	$24,976,508,355	23 / 25

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	19	2
2026-06-01	17	18	2
2026-07-01	18	17	2
2026-08-01	20	16	2
2026-09-01	20	14	2
2026-10-01	20	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS rises to $1.91 in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Achieve operational synergies from Silicon Labs acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows to $5.2 billion in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 21, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Texas Instruments outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong revenue and earnings growth, but recent changes indicate a shift to a mild favorable outlook.

What's priced into Texas Instruments

The market seems to have priced in a neutral valuation compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The fragility in earnings quality is acknowledged, but it is not fully reflected in the current pricing.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue and maintain strong cash flow. However, there is a mixed status regarding investments in research and development, which could impact future growth.

What Texas Instruments hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any guidance cuts from TXN could negatively impact sentiment.