Tradeweb Markets Inc (TW)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$122.57+0.56%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tradeweb Markets Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.58 → 4.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	587.6M
EPS	—	1.015
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.36B
EPS	—	4.084
Capital expenditure	$107M–$117M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.65B
EPS	—	4.672

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share grows to $0.14	It raised dividends from $0.10 to $0.14 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.10 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.14 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 303abce4-a4da-45ac-9ee4-8d89597aeb83. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
LSEG Market Data Contract Revenue reaches $105 million	Tradeweb grows market data revenue to $105 million in 2026.	Intact	revenue falls below $90 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Execute $500 million share repurchase program	The company executes a $500 million share buyback program.	Intact	no meaningful buyback activity within 12 months after $300 million program ends	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.67

$4.60 → $4.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.65B

$2.61B → $2.65B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.60	$2,610,138,620	14 / 13
2026-07-25	$4.60	$2,610,138,620	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$4.57	$2,611,378,286	10 / 13
2026-07-27	$4.57	$2,611,378,286	10 / 13
2026-07-28	$4.57	$2,611,378,286	10 / 13
2026-07-29	$4.60	$2,610,138,620	14 / 13
2026-07-30	$4.60	$2,610,138,620	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$4.61	$2,616,615,540	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.58	$2,618,007,286	10 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.60	$2,617,562,880	14 / 14
2026-08-03	$4.60	$2,617,562,880	14 / 14
2026-08-04	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-05	$4.59	$2,614,130,970	14 / 14
2026-08-06	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-08	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-09	$4.59	$2,614,260,470	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$4.59	$2,614,260,470	14 / 14
2026-08-12	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-13	$4.59	$2,611,578,310	14 / 13
2026-08-14	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-15	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-16	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-17	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-18	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-19	$4.57	$2,624,397,549	10 / 13
2026-08-20	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-21	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-23	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-25	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-26	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-29	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-30	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-08-31	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-09-01	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-09-02	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-09-03	$4.58	$2,623,110,116	10 / 13
2026-09-04	$4.58	$2,623,283,193	10 / 13
2026-09-05	$4.58	$2,623,283,193	10 / 13
2026-09-06	$4.58	$2,623,283,193	10 / 13
2026-09-07	$4.58	$2,623,283,193	10 / 13
2026-09-08	$4.58	$2,623,283,193	10 / 13
2026-09-09	$4.58	$2,621,092,896	10 / 13
2026-09-10	$4.58	$2,621,092,896	10 / 13
2026-09-11	$4.58	$2,617,632,713	10 / 13
2026-09-12	$4.58	$2,617,632,713	10 / 13
2026-09-13	$4.58	$2,617,632,713	10 / 13
2026-09-14	$4.58	$2,617,632,713	10 / 13
2026-09-15	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-16	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-17	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-18	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-19	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-20	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-21	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-22	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-23	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-24	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	10 / 13
2026-09-25	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	9 / 13
2026-09-26	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	9 / 13
2026-09-27	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	9 / 13
2026-09-28	$4.58	$2,617,629,866	9 / 13
2026-09-29	$4.58	$2,617,627,641	9 / 13
2026-09-30	$4.58	$2,617,627,641	9 / 13
2026-10-01	$4.58	$2,617,627,641	9 / 13
2026-10-02	$4.58	$2,617,627,641	9 / 13
2026-10-03	$4.60	$2,622,902,682	10 / 13
2026-10-04	$4.60	$2,622,902,682	9 / 13
2026-10-05	$4.60	$2,622,902,682	9 / 13
2026-10-06	$4.60	$2,622,905,325	9 / 13
2026-10-07	$4.63	$2,623,193,852	9 / 13
2026-10-08	$4.64	$2,629,572,424	9 / 13
2026-10-09	$4.64	$2,629,572,424	9 / 12
2026-10-10	$4.64	$2,629,572,424	9 / 12
2026-10-11	$4.65	$2,636,377,972	9 / 12
2026-10-12	$4.65	$2,636,377,972	9 / 12
2026-10-13	$4.66	$2,632,952,437	9 / 12
2026-10-14	$4.66	$2,635,026,688	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$4.66	$2,635,248,116	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$4.66	$2,634,281,402	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$4.66	$2,634,281,402	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$4.66	$2,634,281,402	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$4.66	$2,634,281,402	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$4.66	$2,634,345,688	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$4.66	$2,637,571,582	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$4.67	$2,646,285,868	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$4.67	$2,646,285,868	9 / 11
2026-10-24	$4.67	$2,646,285,868	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	9
2026-06-01	8	8
2026-07-01	8	7
2026-08-01	8	7
2026-09-01	8	7
2026-10-01	9	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Loop Capital MarketsOct 15 · prior Oct 12

$107.00 → $182.00+70.1%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$118.00 → $125.00+5.9%

Raymond JamesOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$151.00 → $128.00-15.2%

$0$100.10$200.20

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share grows to $0.14Dividend per share: $0.14 per share
LSEG Market Data Contract Revenue reaches $105 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Execute $500 million share repurchase programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tradeweb Markets Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TW is a financial-sector business with a long-term thesis tied to growth in electronic trading and continued investment in its platform. The thesis is intact, with management stable and recent financial performance neutral, but earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into Tradeweb Markets Inc

TW is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and only a small expectations gap. The valuation measure recently declined, while the priced-in assessment says the premium is justified and fragility is low because weak execution quality is not part of a broader fragile setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, core and emerging electronic trading growth remains a management priority, but revenue was lower in the second quarter than the first, making delivery mixed. Platform investment and AiEX adoption provide evidence of progress, while recent earnings misses and a sector headwind remain risks; the stated miss risk is low.

What Tradeweb Markets Inc hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the history of estimate reductions after cuts. The sector backdrop also depends on rates and peer results: the evidence identifies rate cuts as a headwind, while continued strong results and higher guidance from MS, GS, and SCHW would support sector momentum.