Tetra Tech (TTEK)

NASDAQIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.98+0.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tetra Tech’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	1.07B
EPS	—	0.38
Annual ending 2027-09-28
Revenue	—	4.47B
EPS	—	1.713
Annual ending 2028-09-28
Revenue	—	4.7B
EPS	—	1.9

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share grows to at least $0.07 per quarter	The company grows its dividend steadily, showing strong cash flow.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.07 per quarter	Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.07 per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.072 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35fd86d1-a6fb-4c81-bec2-c32f260ce64e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly dividend increased by 11% year-over-year from $0.065 in 2026-Q2 to $0.072 in 2026-Q3, marking the 45th consecutive double-digit increase. The trajectory is delivering with consistent dividend growth supported by strong cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full year EPS reaches at least $1.50 in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Tetra Tech's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.50 per share.	Intact	full year EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.42 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.50 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.42 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35fd86d1-a6fb-4c81-bec2-c32f260ce64e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EPS guidance increased from $1.46-$1.56 in 2026-Q1 to $1.56-$1.59 in 2026-Q3. Reported diluted EPS was $0.42 in 2026-Q3, supporting the raised guidance. The trajectory is delivering with improved operating income and cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full year revenue reaches at least $4.25 billion in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Tetra Tech's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.25 billion.	Intact	full year revenue falls below $4.25 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.309B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.25 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20261,308,555,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 35fd86d1-a6fb-4c81-bec2-c32f260ce64e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full year net revenue guidance from $4.15-$4.30 billion in 2026-Q1 to $4.315-$4.365 billion in 2026-Q3, reflecting growth in U.S. federal and international markets. The trajectory is delivering with reported revenue of $1.31 billion in 2026-Q3 and backlog growth supporting guidance increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	3
2026-06-01	5	3
2026-07-01	5	3
2026-08-01	5	3
2026-09-01	5	3
2026-10-01	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

KeyBancOct 15

$41.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$22.55$45.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share grows to at least $0.07 per quarterDividend per share: $0.07 per share
Full year EPS reaches at least $1.50 in fiscal 2026Diluted EPS: $0.42 per share
Full year revenue reaches at least $4.25 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $1.309B

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tetra Tech outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an execution-led growth business, with recent revenue and earnings guidance increases supporting its multi-year view. The thesis is intact, but momentum has weakened and confidence has moved from high to medium.

What's priced into Tetra Tech

Valuation is tagged as stretched, even though the model shows TTEK as cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.17, but the evidence does not specify what the market assumes in detail; execution quality is the main noted source of fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been supported by reported revenue, backlog growth, and higher full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance. Management has also kept dividend growth on track, while the recent earnings beat is a positive signal. Risks remain elevated, and sector conditions are a headwind; recent momentum has fallen sharply.

What Tetra Tech hinges on

A key near-term test is whether management raises guidance again after the prior guidance reduction noted in the evidence. Over the multi-year view, continued backlog and earnings execution matter, alongside whether sector bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance or begin missing and lowering it.

Bottom line

The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, but weaker momentum, elevated risk, and a headwind from the sector make continued execution important. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.