NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows at least 11% year over year: Q2 FY26 +3.0% vs 11% target.
Trade Desk grows revenue about 11% a year. It buys back $164 million in stock each quarter. The company adds new board members to improve strategy. It beats earnings estimates by over 70%.
Competition from Amazon and Netflix may hurt market share. Management changes could slow growth. The stock is down 22% from its high.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $30. Analysts expect about 11% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is 19% above the Street median.
Breaks if: Share repurchases fall below $164 million per quarter
Breaks if: Key management departures or failure to add strategic hires
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a durable compounder with a focus on capturing market share in the global advertising space. The current thesis state reflects a mix of strong revenue growth but decelerating momentum and elevated risks in the near term.
The market seems to have priced in a valuation that is cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The current valuation suggests that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance, reflecting a justified stance given the recent earnings miss.
Management's priorities indicate a focus on expanding market share and supporting Unified ID 2.0 adoption. However, recent financial performance has been neutral, with a significant probability of missing earnings expectations in the near term.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like OMC, MGNI, and STGW. If these companies continue to perform well, TTD may benefit, but any negative guidance from them could adversely affect TTD's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 11% next year
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TTD's performance will largely depend on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and management execution. Not investment advice.
