Trade Desk (The) (TTD)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$12.23-6.85%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Trade Desk (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.24 → 0.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases continue at $164 million per quarter	It buys back $164 million in stock each quarter.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $164 million per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. The Company repurchased shares each quarter, with amounts ranging from $54 million in 2024-Q3 to $423 million in 2025-Q4, and $78 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently executed on share repurchases, demonstrating delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Management maintains stable leadership and strategic hires	A supporting condition in Trade Desk (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain stable leadership and add strategic board members.	Intact	Key management departures or failure to add strategic hires	Leadership stable; 2 strategic board adds (Haddad, Price) vs target of stable leadership + strategic hires David Haddad and Penry Price appointed to board. CEO Jeff Green received stock options, no departure. Workforce reduction noted but not a management exit. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 11% year over year	Trade Desk grows revenue about 11% a year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 11% next year	Revenue growth: 3.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263.02836 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ba0938fa-6c24-4658-9b6c-a91874f4fbe2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 8 of last 8 quarters. Revenue grew from $616 million in 2025-Q1 to $715 million in 2026-Q2, with year-over-year growth slowing from 19% in 2025-Q2 to 3% in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasizes capturing greater market share and innovation leadership, with the trajectory showing delivering revenue growth but decelerating momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.25

$2.15 → $0.25 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.60B

$3.48B → $2.60B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.15	$3,481,554,500	22 / 36
2026-07-25	$2.15	$3,481,548,750	22 / 36
2026-07-26	$1.19	$3,491,450,794	20 / 26
2026-07-27	$2.15	$3,481,548,750	22 / 36
2026-07-28	$1.19	$3,491,450,794	20 / 26
2026-07-29	$1.19	$3,492,756,620	20 / 26
2026-07-30	$2.15	$3,482,890,850	22 / 36
2026-07-31	$2.15	$3,482,890,850	22 / 36
2026-08-01	$1.19	$3,492,756,620	20 / 26
2026-08-02	$1.19	$3,492,756,620	20 / 26
2026-08-03	$2.15	$3,482,890,850	22 / 36
2026-08-04	$1.19	$3,492,817,136	20 / 26
2026-08-05	$2.17	$3,482,924,180	20 / 36
2026-08-06	$1.19	$3,492,817,136	20 / 26
2026-08-08	$2.17	$3,352,365,680	19 / 36
2026-08-09	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-10	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-12	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-13	$1.00	$2,677,264,620	20 / 36
2026-08-14	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-15	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-16	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-17	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-18	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-19	$1.19	$3,492,790,110	19 / 26
2026-08-20	$0.24	$2,632,906,028	16 / 26
2026-08-21	$0.24	$2,632,906,028	16 / 26
2026-08-22	$0.24	$2,632,906,028	16 / 26
2026-08-23	$0.24	$2,632,906,028	16 / 26
2026-08-24	$0.24	$2,632,906,028	16 / 26
2026-08-25	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	16 / 26
2026-08-26	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-08-27	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-08-28	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-08-29	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-08-30	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-08-31	$0.24	$2,632,904,979	17 / 26
2026-09-01	$0.24	$2,632,902,003	17 / 26
2026-09-02	$0.24	$2,632,902,003	17 / 26
2026-09-03	$0.24	$2,632,902,003	17 / 26
2026-09-04	$0.24	$2,632,902,003	17 / 26
2026-09-05	$0.24	$2,632,899,119	17 / 26
2026-09-06	$0.24	$2,632,896,690	17 / 26
2026-09-07	$0.24	$2,632,896,690	17 / 26
2026-09-08	$0.24	$2,632,903,144	17 / 26
2026-09-09	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-10	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-11	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-12	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-13	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-14	$0.24	$2,630,470,711	17 / 26
2026-09-15	$0.24	$2,624,416,188	17 / 26
2026-09-16	$0.24	$2,624,416,188	17 / 26
2026-09-17	$0.24	$2,624,416,188	17 / 26
2026-09-18	$0.24	$2,624,416,188	17 / 26
2026-09-19	$0.24	$2,624,416,188	17 / 26
2026-09-20	$0.25	$2,624,421,593	16 / 26
2026-09-21	$0.25	$2,624,421,593	16 / 26
2026-09-22	$0.25	$2,624,421,593	16 / 26
2026-09-23	$0.25	$2,624,421,593	17 / 26
2026-09-24	$0.25	$2,624,421,593	17 / 26
2026-09-25	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-09-26	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-09-27	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-09-28	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-09-29	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-09-30	$0.25	$2,619,873,657	17 / 26
2026-10-01	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-02	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-03	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-04	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-05	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-06	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-07	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-08	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-09	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-10	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-11	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-12	$0.25	$2,618,697,036	17 / 26
2026-10-13	$0.26	$2,612,591,773	18 / 26
2026-10-14	$0.26	$2,612,591,773	18 / 26
2026-10-15	$0.25	$2,603,970,688	18 / 26

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	18	20	4
2026-06-01	14	20	5
2026-07-01	13	19	5
2026-08-01	13	23	8
2026-09-01	5	23	8
2026-10-01	5	23	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 23 Hold · 8 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 14 · prior Aug 7

$16.00 → $15.00-6.3%

GuggenheimSep 18 · prior Aug 7

$12.00 → $13.00+8.3%

$0$8.80$17.60

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases continue at $164 million per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows at least 11% year over yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-78.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Trade Desk (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the advertising technology sector. The current thesis state is intact, but it faces volatility in management and elevated risk factors.

What's priced into Trade Desk (The)

The market currently prices TTD as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not be fully factoring in potential future challenges or growth opportunities.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown robust earnings quality, but recent financial performance has been neutral with slowing revenue growth. The near-term risk of earnings misses is low, yet the industry has a high miss rate, which adds uncertainty.

What Trade Desk (The) hinges on

The future of TTD hinges on management's ability to capture more market share and successfully support Unified ID 2.0 adoption. Additionally, external factors like Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance from sector peers will significantly influence TTD's trajectory.