TENARIS SA (TS)

NYSEMaterialsOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-29

$60.31-1.63%

Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 29, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TENARIS SA’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.21 → 4.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 29, 2026 to Oct 29, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	3.02BAs of 2026-09-30
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.839As of 2026-09-30
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	No quarterly guidance published	3.18B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	0.961
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	12.22B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	3.784
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	No annual guidance published	13.04B
EPS	No EPS guidance published	4.295

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain strong dividend payouts	A supporting condition in TENARIS SA's published investment case. The stated target is >=600 million.	Intact	dividend payout falls below $600 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or grow market share in the energy sector	A supporting condition in TENARIS SA's published investment case. The stated target is stable or increasing market share.	Improving	market share declines significantly	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Oct 29, 2026Last status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth driven by rising drilling demand	Tenaris benefits from rising drilling demand, supporting revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 29, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.29

$4.24 → $4.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.04B

$12.89B → $13.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-27	$4.24	$12,890,066,168	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-07-29	$4.24	$12,890,066,168	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-07-31	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-08-01	$4.24	$12,890,066,168	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-08-03	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-08-04	$4.24	$12,890,066,168	8 / 11
2026-08-05	$4.24	$12,890,066,168	8 / 11
2026-08-06	$4.07	$12,815,867,520	10 / 18
2026-08-08	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$4.09	$12,847,486,220	10 / 18
2026-08-10	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$4.09	$12,862,647,500	10 / 18
2026-08-13	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-14	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-15	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-16	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-17	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-18	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-19	$4.24	$12,890,064,687	8 / 11
2026-08-20	$4.25	$12,933,104,301	8 / 11
2026-08-21	$4.24	$12,915,516,667	8 / 11
2026-08-22	$4.20	$12,955,936,765	8 / 11
2026-08-23	$4.20	$12,955,936,765	7 / 10
2026-08-24	$4.20	$12,955,936,765	7 / 10
2026-08-25	$4.21	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-26	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-27	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-28	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-29	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-30	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-08-31	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-09-01	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-09-02	$4.20	$12,984,620,313	7 / 10
2026-09-03	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-04	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-05	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-06	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-07	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-08	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-09	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-10	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-11	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-12	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-13	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-14	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-15	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-16	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-17	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-18	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-19	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	7 / 10
2026-09-20	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-21	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$4.22	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 10
2026-09-27	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$4.21	$12,984,623,207	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$4.24	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$4.24	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$4.24	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$4.29	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$4.29	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$4.29	$13,034,168,781	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$4.30	$13,060,660,033	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$4.25	$12,974,818,781	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$4.25	$12,974,818,781	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$4.25	$12,974,818,781	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$4.25	$12,974,818,781	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$4.30	$13,012,943,781	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$4.30	$13,012,943,781	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$4.31	$13,020,227,147	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$4.31	$13,020,227,147	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$4.31	$13,020,227,147	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$4.31	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$4.31	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$4.33	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$4.33	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$4.33	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$4.30	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$4.30	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-25	$4.30	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-26	$4.30	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-27	$4.30	$13,035,708,957	6 / 9
2026-10-28	$4.29	$13,035,698,111	6 / 9
2026-10-29	$4.29	$13,035,698,111	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	4	1
2026-06-01	7	4	1
2026-07-01	7	4	2
2026-08-01	7	4	1
2026-09-01	7	4	1
2026-10-01	7	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 30–Oct 29 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Aug 20

$60.00 → $62.00+3.3%

$0$34.10$68.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 30, 2026–Oct 29, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain strong dividend payoutsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain or grow market share in the energy sectorQualitative condition
Revenue growth driven by rising drilling demandDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TENARIS SA outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-sensitive Materials-sector investment rather than a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history, and confidence in the overall evidence is low.

What's priced into TENARIS SA

The snapshot gives no valuation level or market-expectations data, so it is not possible to judge whether TS is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what expectations are already reflected. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not establish a valuation view.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the sector context weakened by 13.7 points, from 12.9 to -0.8, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. The estimated near-term miss probability is 27%, described as low, though the snapshot also notes recent misses among industry peers. Company-specific results and management execution are not provided.

What TENARIS SA hinges on

Over the coming months, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from Materials bellwethers LIN, FCX, and SHW could support sector momentum around TS. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support. Over the 1-to-3-year view, materially slower GDP growth from the current 2.2%, such as growth below 2%, is a key risk because Materials stocks are growth-sensitive.