Trupanion (TRUP)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.32-1.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Trupanion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	412.1M
EPS	—	0.203
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.59B
EPS	—	0.632
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	0.703

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net income improvement and cost control	Net income improved from $1.7M to $4.9M in recent quarters.	Broken	Net income falls below $3M in FY26	Net income: $6.831M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20266,831,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9fd4d9d1-680d-45fd-bd93-d8e1bb48fab2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 10% annually	A primary condition in Trupanion's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 11.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202611.137384 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9fd4d9d1-680d-45fd-bd93-d8e1bb48fab2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Valuation premium justified by growth and profitability	A supporting condition in Trupanion's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain premium valuation with justified growth.	Intact	PE falls below 15x without earnings decline	P/E (TTM): 15.93x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202615.9348 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: TRUP:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.72B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,715,310,800	1 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,719,670,800	1 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,718,432,200	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	3
2026-08-01	3	4
2026-09-01	2	4
2026-10-01	2	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 7

$30.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net income improvement and cost controlPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above 10% annuallyRevenue growth: 11.14%
Valuation premium justified by growth and profitabilityP/E (TTM): 15.93x

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Trupanion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented insurance business with some recurring subscription revenue, but it is not yet a consistent profitability story. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on stated priorities, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort and company quality has weakened.

What's priced into Trupanion

TRUP is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence labels that premium unjustified. The expectations gap is meaningful, though model confidence is low; the valuation is the main identified source of fragility rather than a broader combination of weak conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, subscription revenue and enrolled pets have grown, and operating income has improved, but net income has declined over the same comparison period. Results have been mixed, with an earnings miss in April followed by a beat in August, while the company remains loss-making in the broader factor assessment.

What Trupanion hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued subscription growth and whether operating income gains become more consistent without further weakness in net income. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from major financial-sector peers could support sector momentum; lower rates are identified as a sector headwind.