TransUnion (TRU)

NYSEIndustrialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$81.48-2.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TransUnion’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.61 → 5.47 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	1.205
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.16B
EPS	—	4.829
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.54B
EPS	—	5.472

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Revenue growth from acquisitions	A primary condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.12B revenue in FY26.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $4.5B in FY26	Revenue: $1.31B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.12B revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261,309,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb390400-1049-46a9-b4a1-23c22cb7af3e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1,139.7M in 2025-Q2 to $1,310M in 2026-Q2, with acquisitions contributing approximately 4.5 points of growth in Q3 2026. Management has consistently highlighted acquisitions like Trans Union de Mexico as key to revenue expansion, showing delivering trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS growth from operational improvements	A primary condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.08 EPS in FY26.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.2 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.74 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.08 EPS in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20260.74 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb390400-1049-46a9-b4a1-23c22cb7af3e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage regulatory and privacy risks	A supporting condition in TransUnion's published investment case. The stated target is No major regulatory penalties or restrictions.	Intact	Significant regulatory penalties or restrictions announced	No major penalties reported News highlights VantageScore API launch, pricing changes, and CFO departure. No regulatory fines or restrictions mentioned. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.47

$5.59 → $5.47 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.54B

$5.55B → $5.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.59	$5,550,721,810	20 / 21
2026-07-25	$5.59	$5,550,721,810	20 / 21
2026-07-26	$5.59	$5,550,721,810	20 / 21
2026-07-27	$5.59	$5,550,721,810	20 / 21
2026-07-28	$5.57	$5,560,499,603	14 / 16
2026-07-29	$5.57	$5,578,209,508	14 / 16
2026-07-30	$5.59	$5,556,889,080	20 / 21
2026-07-31	$5.61	$5,575,122,890	20 / 21
2026-08-01	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-02	$5.61	$5,575,122,890	20 / 21
2026-08-03	$5.61	$5,575,122,890	20 / 21
2026-08-04	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-05	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-06	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$5.61	$5,575,122,890	20 / 21
2026-08-10	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-13	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-17	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-18	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-19	$5.60	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-20	$5.61	$5,587,463,151	14 / 16
2026-08-21	$5.61	$5,587,453,627	14 / 16
2026-08-22	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-23	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-24	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-25	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	13 / 16
2026-08-26	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-27	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-28	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-29	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-30	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-08-31	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-09-01	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-09-02	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-09-03	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-09-04	$5.61	$5,591,660,777	14 / 16
2026-09-05	$5.60	$5,591,403,635	14 / 16
2026-09-06	$5.60	$5,591,403,635	14 / 16
2026-09-07	$5.60	$5,591,403,635	14 / 16
2026-09-08	$5.60	$5,591,403,635	14 / 16
2026-09-09	$5.61	$5,588,235,227	14 / 16
2026-09-10	$5.61	$5,588,235,227	14 / 16
2026-09-11	$5.61	$5,588,235,225	14 / 16
2026-09-12	$5.61	$5,588,515,637	14 / 16
2026-09-13	$5.61	$5,588,515,637	14 / 16
2026-09-14	$5.61	$5,588,515,637	14 / 16
2026-09-15	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-16	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-17	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-18	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-19	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-20	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-21	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-22	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-23	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-24	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-25	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-26	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-27	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-28	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-29	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-09-30	$5.61	$5,588,131,666	14 / 16
2026-10-01	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-02	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-03	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-04	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-05	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-06	$5.59	$5,588,349,518	14 / 16
2026-10-07	$5.58	$5,592,216,994	14 / 16
2026-10-08	$5.58	$5,619,762,367	14 / 16
2026-10-09	$5.58	$5,615,901,256	13 / 16
2026-10-10	$5.58	$5,615,901,256	13 / 16
2026-10-11	$5.58	$5,615,923,478	13 / 16
2026-10-12	$5.58	$5,615,923,478	13 / 16
2026-10-13	$5.58	$5,615,923,478	13 / 16
2026-10-14	$5.56	$5,588,391,916	13 / 16
2026-10-15	$5.56	$5,588,391,916	13 / 16
2026-10-16	$5.56	$5,588,391,916	13 / 16
2026-10-17	$5.56	$5,588,391,916	13 / 16
2026-10-18	$5.51	$5,561,986,814	13 / 16
2026-10-19	$5.51	$5,561,986,814	13 / 16
2026-10-20	$5.47	$5,538,882,013	13 / 16
2026-10-21	$5.47	$5,538,882,013	13 / 16
2026-10-22	$5.47	$5,538,029,349	13 / 16
2026-10-23	$5.47	$5,538,029,349	13 / 16
2026-10-24	$5.47	$5,538,029,349	14 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	5
2026-06-01	17	5
2026-07-01	17	6
2026-08-01	16	6
2026-09-01	17	6
2026-10-01	17	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 21 · prior Sep 24

$80.00 → $83.00+3.8%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 19 · prior Jul 2

$77.00 → $74.00-3.9%

RBC CapitalOct 16

$92.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Jul 29

$106.00 → $97.00-8.5%

Goldman SachsOct 2 · prior Sep 29

$77.00 → $68.00-11.7%

BarclaysOct 2

$70.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$58.30$116.60

1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Revenue growth from acquisitionsPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS growth from operational improvementsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TransUnion outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TRU is a growth-oriented business with recent strong financial performance, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, supported by revenue growth and management execution, but earnings quality is fragile and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into TransUnion

The valuation evidence describes TRU as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially stretched, though the evidence does not spell out the market’s specific assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with organic constant-currency growth and acquisitions contributing to revenue expansion; management’s innovation and acquisition priorities are on track. A recent guidance raise and two earnings beats support execution, but a September CEO transition, fragile earnings quality, and a sector headwind remain risks. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, though the evidence notes peer misses and a deep miss in TRU’s recent history.

What TransUnion hinges on

Over the next several quarters, maintaining the raised guidance matters because a reversal could damage management credibility as well as lower expectations. The broader sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from bellwethers such as BA, CAT, and UNP could support industrial momentum, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support.