Trustmark Corp. (TRMK)

Q: What's priced into Trustmark Corp. (TRMK) stock?

Valuation is near peer levels, with only a slight premium, and the evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with fundamentals. The market does not appear to be pricing a large expectations gap, while the priced-in fragility assessment is low.

Q: What does the Trustmark Corp. (TRMK) outlook hinge on?

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on whether loan and deposit growth continues and expenses remain controlled. A shift to Fed rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from bellwethers HDB, IBN, and USB could sustain sector momentum; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support. Recent M&A, restructuring, and a new financial obligation add context, but the snapshot gives limited detail on their business effects.

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$46.31-0.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Trustmark Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.29 → 4.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	221.62M
EPS	—	1.052
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	851.48M
EPS	—	3.98
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	906.96M
EPS	—	4.333

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $3.9 for FY26	Profit per share beats estimates by 8%.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.9 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Noninterest expense stable near $132 million	Trustmark grows revenue about 4% yearly and keeps costs stable near $132 million.	Intact	Noninterest expense rises materially above $132.2 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Noninterest expense rose slightly by $1.5 million linked-quarter to $133.7 million in 2026-Q2, while salaries and benefits expense declined 1.7%. The expense management focus shows mixed results with a modest increase in total expenses but some control in salaries, indicating limited progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above 4% annually	A primary condition in Trustmark Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year	Revenue growth: 0% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.002106 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: dc5357de-95dd-4c82-9357-c15fcd5521da. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Valuation remains reasonable with P/E near 12	A supporting condition in Trustmark Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=13 P/E.	Intact	P/E rises above 13 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 12.09x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202612.0914 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: TRMK:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.33

$4.10 → $4.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.10	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-25	$4.10	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-26	$4.10	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$4.10	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-28	$4.10	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-29	$4.10	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$4.10	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-01	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-03	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-05	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-08	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-10	$4.11	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-12	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-17	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-18	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-24	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-25	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-26	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-27	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-28	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-29	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-30	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-31	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-01	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-02	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-03	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-04	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-05	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-06	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-07	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-08	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-09	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-10	$4.11	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-11	$4.18	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-12	$4.22	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-13	$4.22	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-14	$4.22	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-15	$4.22	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-16	$4.25	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-17	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-18	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-19	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-20	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-21	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-22	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-23	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-24	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-25	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-26	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-27	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-28	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-29	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-09-30	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-01	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-02	$4.29	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-03	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-04	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-05	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-06	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-07	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-08	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$4.33	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	5
2026-06-01	1	5
2026-07-01	1	5
2026-08-01	1	5
2026-09-01	1	5
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $3.9 for FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Noninterest expense stable near $132 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above 4% annuallyRevenue growth: 0%
Valuation remains reasonable with P/E near 12P/E (TTM): 12.09x

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-9.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Trustmark Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional banking business with a multi-year view that depends on continued growth and disciplined execution, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is intact, but recent financial strength sits alongside fragile earnings quality and a moderate risk label.

What's priced into Trustmark Corp.

Valuation is near peer levels, with only a slight premium, and the evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with fundamentals. The market does not appear to be pricing a large expectations gap, while the priced-in fragility assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, loan and deposit growth supports the business: loans increased by $35.1 million and deposits by $358.7 million in 2026-Q2. Expense control is mixed, with total noninterest expense rising slightly even as salaries and benefits declined; recent performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence flags a low near-term miss risk while noting recent peer misses and a deep miss in TRMK’s history.

What Trustmark Corp. hinges on