LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$26.81-2.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LendingTree, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$325M–$335M	—
EBITDA	$145M–$152Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	339.53M
EPS	—	1.33
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.3B–$1.32B	1.31B
EPS	—	5.337
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.4B
EPS	—	6.62

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income grows to at least $31 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose from $20.9M in 2025-Q2 to $31.1M in 2026-Q1.	Improving	Operating income falls below $31 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $21.798M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $31 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 202621,798,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65b0a52b-7491-49c8-90c1-511f0001c34c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 between $152 million and $162 million	Profit targets for 2026 remain stable near $152 million.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $152 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $1.3 billion	A primary condition in LendingTree, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion.	Intact	Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $1.3 billion	Revenue: $313.422M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026313,422,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 65b0a52b-7491-49c8-90c1-511f0001c34c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.30-$1.32 billion from prior $1.275-$1.33 billion. Actual revenue for first half 2026 was $640.7 million, supporting the raised outlook. The trajectory shows management updating guidance upward consistent with business momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.42B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,416,050,050	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,416,050,050	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,416,050,050	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,416,050,050	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,416,050,050	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,401,320,200	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,401,160,830	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,401,160,830	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,401,160,830	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,401,160,830	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,401,160,830	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	0	0
2026-06-01	6	0	0
2026-07-01	6	0	0
2026-08-01	6	0	0
2026-09-01	6	0	0
2026-10-01	6	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income grows to at least $31 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $21.798M
Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 between $152 million and $162 millionPublished status: Broken
Full-year 2026 revenue at or above $1.3 billionRevenue: $313.422M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LendingTree, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented financial business with execution risk, rather than a steady, low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are showing progress, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into LendingTree, Inc.

TREE is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not show a concentrated market-expectations risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, Insurance revenue and segment profit growth, along with higher adjusted EBITDA, support management’s execution record; new AI capabilities and marketplace expansion do not yet have financial proof. Recent results are mixed, with an earnings miss in July after a beat in April, and the next report carries meaningful risk given erratic surprises and a 46% miss probability. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while overall risk remains high.

What LendingTree, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case depends on Insurance-led growth continuing and EBITDA gains showing that operating leverage is durable. A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. Rate cuts are another risk in the evidence snapshot because it says financials tend to do better when rates stay high.