LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$26.56-4.60%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 between $152 million and $162 million: FY26 EBITDA guidance $148.5M vs $152M target.
LendingTree raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.3 billion. Revenue grew from $239.7M in 2025-Q1 to $327.3M in 2026-Q1. Operating income rose from $20.9M in 2025-Q2 to $31.1M in 2026-Q1. Profit targets for 2026 remain stable near $152 million.
Revenue growth could slow below analyst expectations near 11%. Profit margins might weaken from current levels. Management changes could disrupt execution.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $70. Analysts expect about 11.5% revenue growth. Our view is slightly more optimistic on growth and profit.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $31 million in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $152 million in 2026
Breaks if: Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $1.3 billion
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a long-term thesis on a company with a focus on growth, particularly in its Insurance segment. The current state reflects a mix of stable management and robust earnings quality, but recent financial performance has been neutral, indicating some caution is warranted.
The market appears to price TREE as cheap compared to its peers, with a significant expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be anticipating some challenges ahead, particularly given the recent earnings miss.
Management is focused on growing revenue and increasing profitability, especially in the Insurance segment, which has shown strong growth. However, there is a near-term risk of missing expectations again, as the company has struggled with earnings surprises recently.
The future performance of TREE will depend on the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage risks effectively. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like V, MA, and AXP will be crucial, as their results could impact the overall momentum in the Financials sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reported growth in its Insurance segment, which supports revenue and profit. However, it missed revenue estimates, which threatens its growth outlook for 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Raise full-year 2026 revenue outlook reflecting business momentum.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $1.30-$1.32 billion from prior $1.275-$1.33 billion. Actual revenue for first half 2026 was $640.7 million, supporting the raised outlook. The trajectory shows management updating guidance upward consistent with business momentum.
“Full-year 2026: Revenue of $1.30 to $1.32 billion”
“Full-year 2026: Revenue of $1,300 - $1,350 million compared to prior range of $1,275 - $1,330 million”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, TREE's success will likely hinge on its execution of growth strategies and external market conditions. Not investment advice.