THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC (TOVX)

NYSE MKTHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.20+3.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.065
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	300,000
EPS	—	-0.255
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.215

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improvement in EPS losses	A supporting condition in THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.20 to better than -$0.10 by FY27.	Broken	EPS loss remains at or below -$0.20 by FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Progress on license agreement with Rasayana Therapeutics	Theriva Biologics has secured an exclusive worldwide license with Rasayana Therapeutics, which could drive future growth.	Intact	no material progress or revenue from Rasayana license by FY27	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating losses	Management is focused on managing operating losses, which have decreased from $4.44 million to $2.13 million.	Broken	operating loss remains above $2 million next 4 quarters	Operating income: $-3.295M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss declines below $2 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026-3,295,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1b0c9341-f708-44aa-8690-b2c8dd6bc954. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 quarters, 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2, management reported cash declining from $14.4M to $11.3M with runway into Q1 2027. Net losses increased from $2.0M to $3.2M over these quarters. Operating expenses remain significant but cash runway is consistent with management's stated funding horizon, indicating limited progress in reducing burn but maintaining runway. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 0

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improvement in EPS lossesPublished status: Broken
Progress on license agreement with Rasayana TherapeuticsQualitative condition
Manage operating lossesPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not a proven compounder: the company is loss-making and its prospects depend on advancing drug trials. The long-term thesis is intact in the snapshot, but confidence is low and key programs remain at the watch stage.

What's priced into THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC

The valuation model is aligned with its comparison measure, with a modest premium versus peers; the evidence does not show a clear expectations gap. Pricing fragility is rated low, but that does not remove the risk tied to clinical and earnings uncertainty.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the next few quarters, results may remain uneven: there was an earnings miss in August after results were in line in May, and the estimated risk of another near-term miss is elevated. Across the next one to three years, fundamentals hinge more on clinical progress than current earnings, including trial enrollment and data for VCN-01.

What THERIVA BIOLOGICS INC hinges on

A favorable case depends on advancing VCN-01 trials in pancreatic cancer, retinoblastoma, and head and neck cancer, with meaningful clinical evidence still ahead. The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut or weaker employment data that raises recession fears; stronger results from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop but would not establish TOVX's clinical success.