Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.93-3.55%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Travel + Leisure Co.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.88 → 8.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.07B
EPS	—	2.219
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.18B
EPS	—	7.569
EBITDA	$1.07B–$1.09Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.39B
EPS	—	8.714

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain profit margins near guided levels	Profit margins stay stable near guided levels.	Intact	Gross margin falls below $2400M in FY25	Gross margin: 57.01% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2475M gross margin. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 22, 202657.008467 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Resort Optimization Initiative incurred $210 million of inventory write-downs in 2025-Q4 and $25 million in the first half of 2026, with management expecting a positive net impact to Adjusted EBITDA in 2026. This initiative is delivering cost savings and portfolio optimization consistent with management's stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026
Revenue growth of about 3% per year	Travel + Leisure grows revenue about 3% a year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% next year	Revenue growth: 4.42% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 22, 20264.420432 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7e755b90-20ac-4db5-90d6-6306d9ce04b4. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management reported robust growth in Margaritaville and Eddie Bauer Adventure Club brands and announced new Sports Illustrated Resort locations. While specific revenue figures for these brands are not disclosed, the company highlights these initiatives as key growth drivers, indicating ongoing progress. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026
Continue share repurchase program with at least $87M in Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Travel + Leisure Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase >=$87M shares in Q1 2026.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $50M in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The Company repurchased $88 million in shares in 2026-Q2 and maintained a substantial remaining authorization of $745 million. Management has consistently executed share repurchases, delivering on its capital return commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 20, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.71

$8.59 → $8.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.39B

$4.25B → $4.39B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.59	$4,245,353,220	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$8.77	$4,328,872,325	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-07-31	$8.77	$4,328,872,325	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$8.77	$4,328,872,325	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-08-03	$8.77	$4,328,872,325	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$8.74	$4,362,541,180	8 / 8
2026-08-05	$8.86	$4,357,780,930	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$8.77	$4,328,872,325	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$8.86	$4,357,780,930	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$8.86	$4,357,780,930	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$8.86	$4,342,736,718	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$8.88	$4,373,473,128	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$8.88	$4,373,473,128	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$8.88	$4,373,473,128	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$8.88	$4,373,473,128	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$8.88	$4,373,473,128	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$8.88	$4,380,697,957	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$8.88	$4,381,223,128	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$8.80	$4,386,816,234	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$8.75	$4,385,081,548	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$8.76	$4,386,748,215	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$8.77	$4,387,549,965	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$8.77	$4,387,549,965	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$8.74	$4,390,466,632	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$8.74	$4,390,466,632	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$8.74	$4,390,448,490	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$8.74	$4,390,448,490	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$8.71	$4,390,448,490	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$8.71	$4,390,448,490	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$8.71	$4,390,448,490	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	2
2026-06-01	11	2
2026-07-01	11	1
2026-08-01	12	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	11	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 22 · prior Aug 18

$85.00 → $86.00+1.2%

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Apr 23

$87.00 → $90.00+3.4%

SusquehannaOct 15

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Jun 1

$85.00 → $78.00-8.2%

$0$49.50$99.00

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain profit margins near guided levelsGross margin: 57.01%
Revenue growth of about 3% per yearRevenue growth: 4.42%
Continue share repurchase program with at least $87M in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Travel + Leisure Co. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TNL is a value-oriented, consumer-discretionary business, with a thesis tied to resort optimization and growth across multiple brands. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has eased to medium and recent execution remains uneven.

What's priced into Travel + Leisure Co.

The evidence describes TNL as cheap versus peers, while the model confidence is low. The market appears to allow for weak execution, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and high operating turbulence; the expectations gap is negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, a recent earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses remain watchpoints, although the estimated miss risk is low. Management says resort optimization should have a positive net impact on adjusted earnings in 2026, while share repurchases and multi-brand expansion are progressing; the resort initiative remains mixed after inventory write-downs.

What Travel + Leisure Co. hinges on

A key risk is whether TNL cuts guidance after recently raising it, which could damage confidence in management’s outlook. The broader sector backdrop also matters: continued strong results from travel and leisure bellwethers could support sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.