T-Mobile US (TMUS)

NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$159.10+1.32%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge T-Mobile US’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.90 → 13.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 17 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 17; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures near $10 billion in 2026	Capital spending stays near $10 billion.	Intact	CAPEX deviates more than 10% from $10 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Service revenue grows at least 6% yearly	T-Mobile grows service revenue 11% yearly to $18.8 billion.	Intact	YoY service revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Shareholder returns reach $18.2 billion by end 2026	It plans $18.2 billion in stock returns by end 2026.	Intact	Total shareholder returns fall short of $18 billion by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.96

$13.57 → $13.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$98.52B

$98.81B → $98.52B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.57	$98,805,692,070	21 / 22
2026-07-25	$13.82	$98,631,805,251	17 / 17
2026-07-26	$13.89	$98,641,565,940	21 / 23
2026-07-27	$13.87	$98,619,963,910	21 / 23
2026-07-28	$13.87	$98,619,963,910	21 / 23
2026-07-29	$13.89	$98,590,948,581	17 / 18
2026-07-30	$13.88	$98,607,381,300	21 / 23
2026-07-31	$13.90	$98,575,948,581	17 / 18
2026-08-01	$13.90	$98,575,948,581	17 / 18
2026-08-02	$13.88	$98,601,818,360	21 / 23
2026-08-03	$13.88	$98,601,818,360	21 / 23
2026-08-04	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-05	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-06	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-08	$13.90	$98,601,818,360	21 / 23
2026-08-09	$13.90	$98,601,818,360	21 / 23
2026-08-10	$13.90	$98,601,818,360	21 / 23
2026-08-12	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-13	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-14	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-15	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-16	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-17	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-18	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-19	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-20	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-21	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-22	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-23	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-24	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-25	$13.90	$98,572,972,877	17 / 18
2026-08-26	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-08-27	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-08-28	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-08-29	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-08-30	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-08-31	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-01	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-02	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-03	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-04	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-05	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-06	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-07	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-08	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-09	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-10	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-11	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-12	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-13	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-14	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-15	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-16	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-17	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-18	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-19	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-20	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-21	$13.90	$98,572,970,883	17 / 18
2026-09-22	$13.90	$98,549,492,622	17 / 18
2026-09-23	$13.93	$98,583,730,032	17 / 18
2026-09-24	$13.93	$98,583,730,032	17 / 18
2026-09-25	$13.93	$98,583,730,032	17 / 18
2026-09-26	$13.93	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-09-27	$13.93	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-09-28	$13.93	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-09-29	$13.93	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-09-30	$13.93	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-10-01	$13.96	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-10-02	$13.96	$98,584,686,080	17 / 18
2026-10-03	$13.96	$98,557,574,160	17 / 18
2026-10-04	$13.96	$98,557,574,160	17 / 18
2026-10-05	$13.96	$98,557,574,160	17 / 18
2026-10-06	$13.95	$98,557,574,160	18 / 19
2026-10-07	$13.95	$98,557,592,737	18 / 19
2026-10-08	$13.96	$98,519,992,737	17 / 19
2026-10-09	$13.96	$98,519,976,914	17 / 18
2026-10-10	$13.96	$98,519,976,914	17 / 18
2026-10-11	$13.96	$98,522,454,171	17 / 18
2026-10-12	$13.96	$98,522,454,171	17 / 18
2026-10-13	$13.96	$98,517,497,649	17 / 18
2026-10-14	$13.96	$98,517,495,656	17 / 18
2026-10-15	$13.96	$98,517,495,656	17 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	25	4
2026-06-01	24	4
2026-07-01	25	4
2026-08-01	23	5
2026-09-01	23	5
2026-10-01	23	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 13

$180.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 12

$170.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankOct 9 · prior Oct 2

$217.00 → $212.00-2.3%

$0$119.35$238.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures near $10 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Service revenue grows at least 6% yearlyDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Shareholder returns reach $18.2 billion by end 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

T-Mobile US outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth in the telecommunications sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.

What's priced into T-Mobile US

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with TMUS being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the company's recent strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, driven by management's focus on postpaid account growth and network leadership. Recent financial results show strong growth, but there is a moderate risk of missing future expectations, especially given the recent history of misses in the industry.

What T-Mobile US hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain credibility and execute on growth priorities. Key factors include potential changes in Federal Reserve interest rates and the performance of sector peers like Verizon and AT&T.