TKO Group Holdings (TKO)

NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-10-15

$175.50-0.30%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TKO Group Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.47 → 5.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $2.240B and $2.290B in 2026	Profit (Adjusted EBITDA) is rising, targeting $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.240 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue between $5.675B and $5.775B in 2026	A primary condition in TKO Group Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.675 billion.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $5.675 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.547B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.675 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20261,547,078,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fd506d51-9c27-4e2c-9ea6-fa900baac701. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $2.0 billion share repurchase program within 3-4 years	A supporting condition in TKO Group Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Complete $2.0 billion repurchase by 2028-2029.	Intact	Share repurchases stall and fail to reach $2.0 billion within 4 years	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The Company announced a $2.0B share repurchase program expected to complete within 3-4 years. It completed an $800M accelerated share repurchase in 2025-Q4 and repurchased $129.3M in 2026-Q2 plus $70.7M in July 2026, showing delivering progress on the program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.46

$4.92 → $5.46 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.88B

$5.82B → $5.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.92	$5,823,646,040	11 / 20
2026-07-25	$4.92	$5,823,436,040	11 / 20
2026-07-26	$4.92	$5,823,436,040	11 / 20
2026-07-27	$4.92	$5,823,436,040	11 / 20
2026-07-28	$5.29	$5,834,781,521	9 / 15
2026-07-29	$5.29	$5,834,781,521	9 / 15
2026-07-30	$5.26	$5,832,390,482	9 / 15
2026-07-31	$3.95	$5,843,791,240	8 / 19
2026-08-01	$5.26	$5,832,390,482	9 / 15
2026-08-02	$3.95	$5,843,791,240	8 / 19
2026-08-03	$5.26	$5,832,390,482	7 / 14
2026-08-04	$5.26	$5,832,438,101	7 / 14
2026-08-05	$3.95	$5,843,843,870	8 / 19
2026-08-06	$5.26	$5,832,438,101	7 / 14
2026-08-08	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-09	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-10	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-12	$4.92	$5,872,813,620	9 / 20
2026-08-13	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-14	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-15	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-16	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-17	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-18	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-19	$5.47	$5,872,247,224	7 / 15
2026-08-20	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-21	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-22	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-23	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-24	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-25	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-26	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-27	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-28	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-29	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-30	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-08-31	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-01	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-02	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-03	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-04	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-05	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-06	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-07	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-08	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-09	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-10	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-11	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-12	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-13	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-14	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-15	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-16	$5.47	$5,874,704,367	7 / 15
2026-09-17	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-18	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-19	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-20	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-21	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-22	$5.47	$5,874,609,129	7 / 15
2026-09-23	$5.47	$5,874,590,081	7 / 15
2026-09-24	$5.47	$5,874,590,081	7 / 15
2026-09-25	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-09-26	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-09-27	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-09-28	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-09-29	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-09-30	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-10-01	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-10-02	$5.47	$5,874,670,245	7 / 15
2026-10-03	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-04	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-05	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-06	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-07	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-08	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-09	$5.47	$5,876,622,626	7 / 15
2026-10-10	$5.46	$5,873,977,512	7 / 15
2026-10-11	$5.46	$5,873,977,512	7 / 15
2026-10-12	$5.46	$5,873,977,512	7 / 15
2026-10-13	$5.46	$5,873,977,512	7 / 15
2026-10-14	$5.46	$5,873,977,512	7 / 15
2026-10-15	$5.46	$5,878,830,797	7 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	17	5
2026-06-01	17	5
2026-07-01	18	5
2026-08-01	18	4
2026-09-01	18	4
2026-10-01	18	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA between $2.240B and $2.290B in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve revenue between $5.675B and $5.775B in 2026Revenue: $1.547B
Complete $2.0 billion share repurchase program within 3-4 yearsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TKO Group Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a company that is showing strong growth potential in revenue and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). The current state reflects a mix of strong fundamentals but recent earnings misses have raised some caution.

What's priced into TKO Group Holdings

The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, but overall, the valuation is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and EBITDA targets for 2026, which shows a commitment to growth. However, there is an elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss, as the company has struggled with this in recent periods.

What TKO Group Holdings hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to deliver on its growth targets and the overall performance of the Communication Services sector. Additionally, external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector leaders could significantly impact TKO's trajectory.