First Financial Corp/IN (THFF)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$76.67+0.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Financial Corp/IN’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	78.21M
EPS	—	2.045
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	296.58M
EPS	—	7.768
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	344.17M
EPS	—	8.255

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete and integrate CedarStone Financial acquisition	The company completed the CedarStone acquisition to expand its market.	Intact	Acquisition integration delays or failures reported	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.56 per share	Profitability is stable with a low PE of 11.33 and a dividend of $0.56 per share.	Intact	Dividend cut below $0.56 per share	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS of at least $6.68 in fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in First Financial Corp/IN's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.68 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $6.00 in 2026 fiscal year	Diluted EPS: $1.91 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.68 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.91 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 and 2026 guidance. EPS grew from $3.12 in first half 2025 to $3.58 in first half 2026, showing progress toward the $6.68 full-year target. Trajectory is delivering but full year completion is pending. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	1
2026-06-01	1	1
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	3
2026-09-01	0	3
2026-10-01	1	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Hovde GroupOct 12

$85.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$46.75$93.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Complete and integrate CedarStone Financial acquisitionQualitative condition
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.56 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Achieve EPS of at least $6.68 in fiscal year 2026Diluted EPS: $1.91 per share

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Financial Corp/IN outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

THFF is a regional financial business with a multi-year view that depends on steady earnings and management execution. The thesis is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium; recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry.

What's priced into First Financial Corp/IN

Valuation is tagged as justified and the value assessment is neutral. THFF trades at a modest premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The evidence does not point to concentrated valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong, with first-half EPS rising from $3.12 in 2025 to $3.58 in 2026, progress toward management’s full-year goal. The quarterly dividend has been maintained, while completion of the First Illinois merger remains pending and its financial contribution is not yet reflected. Near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but recent peer misses and the sector headwind warrant attention.

What First Financial Corp/IN hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on completing the First Illinois merger and sustaining progress toward the full-year EPS goal. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current 3.88% would be unfavorable factors; continued strength among sector bellwethers could support sector momentum. The merger’s delivery and the CFO transition add execution uncertainty.