Tenet Health (THC)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$268.45-0.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Tenet Health’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

21.08 → 21.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	5.74B
EPS	—	5.673
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	22.23B
EPS	$20.3–$21.69non-GAAP	21.218
Same-facility system-wide revenue growth	3%–6%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	22.51B
EPS	—	21.084

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow stays above $2.3 billion	Free cash flow is strong near $2.3 billion.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $2.275B	Free cash flow: $417M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.275B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026417,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows toward $906 million	A supporting condition in Tenet Health's published investment case. The stated target is Net income near $906M.	Intact	Net income falls below $572M	Net income: $1.045B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income near $906M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261,045,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e6ceb6d4-ce7d-4372-ba38-d59615d70bb2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward $1.3 billion	Profit rises with operating income reaching $1.3 billion.	Intact	Operating income fails to sustain near $1.3B	Operating income: $1.501B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income near $1.3B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261,501,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e6ceb6d4-ce7d-4372-ba38-d59615d70bb2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $21.85 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Tenet Health's published investment case. The stated target is ~$21.85B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $21.15B in FY26	Revenue: $5.628B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$21.85B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20265,628,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e6ceb6d4-ce7d-4372-ba38-d59615d70bb2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.08

$17.93 → $21.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$22.51B

$22.31B → $22.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$17.93	$22,306,089,127	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$18.24	$22,350,482,990	19 / 18
2026-07-26	$18.15	$22,289,207,727	11 / 14
2026-07-27	$18.44	$22,333,566,320	19 / 18
2026-07-28	$18.44	$22,333,566,320	19 / 18
2026-07-29	$18.78	$22,342,728,418	11 / 14
2026-07-30	$20.45	$22,491,853,460	20 / 19
2026-07-31	$20.45	$22,491,853,460	20 / 19
2026-08-01	$18.78	$22,342,728,418	11 / 14
2026-08-02	$20.41	$22,476,317,802	12 / 15
2026-08-03	$20.45	$22,491,853,460	20 / 19
2026-08-04	$20.41	$22,476,317,802	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$20.41	$22,476,317,802	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$20.62	$22,499,221,880	20 / 19
2026-08-08	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-09	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-10	$20.62	$22,499,221,880	20 / 19
2026-08-12	$20.83	$22,531,274,510	20 / 19
2026-08-13	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-15	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-16	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-17	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-18	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-19	$20.59	$22,484,095,580	12 / 15
2026-08-20	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 14
2026-08-21	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 14
2026-08-22	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 14
2026-08-23	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 15
2026-08-24	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 15
2026-08-25	$20.83	$22,520,124,258	12 / 15
2026-08-26	$20.83	$22,520,087,567	12 / 15
2026-08-27	$20.83	$22,520,087,567	12 / 15
2026-08-28	$20.83	$22,520,087,567	12 / 15
2026-08-29	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-08-30	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-08-31	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-01	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-02	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-03	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-04	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-05	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-06	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-07	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-08	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-09	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-10	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-11	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-12	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-13	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-14	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-15	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-16	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-17	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-18	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-19	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-20	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-21	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-22	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-23	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-24	$21.08	$22,512,309,789	12 / 15
2026-09-25	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-09-26	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-09-27	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-09-28	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-09-29	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-09-30	$21.09	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-01	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-02	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-03	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-04	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-05	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-06	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-07	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-08	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-09	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-10	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-11	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-12	$21.08	$22,507,714,537	12 / 15
2026-10-13	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-14	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-15	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-16	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-17	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-18	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-19	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-20	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-21	$21.08	$22,507,022,821	12 / 15
2026-10-22	$21.08	$22,509,319,814	12 / 15
2026-10-23	$21.08	$22,509,319,814	12 / 15
2026-10-24	$21.08	$22,509,319,814	12 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	20	2
2026-06-01	20	2
2026-07-01	20	3
2026-08-01	19	3
2026-09-01	19	4
2026-10-01	19	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 16 · prior Jul 20

$242.00 → $307.00+26.9%

$0$168.85$337.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow stays above $2.3 billionFree cash flow: $417M
Net income grows toward $906 millionNet income: $1.045B
Operating income improves toward $1.3 billionOperating income: $1.501B
Revenue grows to about $21.85 billion in FY26Revenue: $5.628B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Tenet Health outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

THC is a healthcare growth and execution story, with revenue growth, margin improvement, and cash generation supporting the long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, but management quality and earnings quality are assessed as neutral, and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into Tenet Health

The valuation evidence describes THC as cheap versus peers, with a justified priced-in assessment and low fragility. However, the valuation model has low confidence, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term fundamentals have been strong: second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter, segment revenue grew year over year, and adjusted EBITDA margin improved. Management has also raised its 2026 adjusted free cash flow outlook, though weakening earnings surprises and a past deep miss leave some risk around execution.

What Tenet Health hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued revenue growth, margin progress, and strong cash generation. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility, while weakening job growth could add pressure; continued strength from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.