Target Corporation (TGT)

NYSEConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-10-15

$154.26-1.51%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Target Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.59 → 9.64 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 25 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand marketplace with exclusive partnerships	A supporting condition in Target Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain growth in marketplace offerings.	Intact	No new significant partnerships or marketplace growth in next 4 quarters	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $1.14	It keeps paying a stable dividend of $1.14 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $1.10	Dividend per share: $1.14 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $1.14. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 28, 20261.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jan 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a0742d17-78ba-4dbe-8c4b-9cb52a756ced. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated or implied in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share was consistently $1.14 or higher, increasing modestly to $1.16 in 2026-Q2. Management has maintained steady dividend payments, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
EPS of $8.0 to $8.5 per share in 2026	Target grows sales about 4% a year and earns $8.0 per share in 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $4.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $8.0 and $8.5. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 20264.11 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21475ab0-6a7b-4992-b80a-1efe0974988c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated or implied in 6 of last 6 quarters. Dividend per share was consistently $1.14 or higher, increasing modestly to $1.16 in 2026-Q2. Management has maintained steady dividend payments, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Annual revenue growth of at least 4%	A primary condition in Target Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 2% in FY26	Revenue growth: 5.27% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 28, 20265.267542 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 21475ab0-6a7b-4992-b80a-1efe0974988c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$9.64

$8.97 → $9.64 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$113.79B

$112.21B → $113.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$8.97	$112,207,809,069	24 / 27
2026-07-25	$8.97	$112,207,809,069	24 / 27
2026-07-26	$8.98	$112,241,037,640	24 / 27
2026-07-27	$8.98	$112,241,037,640	24 / 27
2026-07-28	$8.99	$112,311,809,069	24 / 27
2026-07-29	$8.99	$112,311,809,069	24 / 27
2026-07-30	$8.99	$112,311,809,069	24 / 27
2026-07-31	$9.02	$112,348,294,783	24 / 28
2026-08-01	$9.02	$112,348,294,783	24 / 28
2026-08-02	$9.02	$112,348,294,783	24 / 28
2026-08-03	$9.02	$112,348,294,783	24 / 28
2026-08-04	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-05	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-06	$8.96	$112,152,197,190	36 / 36
2026-08-08	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-09	$8.96	$112,155,749,370	36 / 36
2026-08-10	$8.96	$112,155,749,370	36 / 36
2026-08-12	$9.00	$112,222,380,750	36 / 36
2026-08-13	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-14	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-15	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-16	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-17	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-18	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-19	$9.02	$112,371,929,540	24 / 28
2026-08-20	$9.50	$113,186,997,460	26 / 27
2026-08-21	$9.54	$113,273,415,293	27 / 28
2026-08-22	$9.55	$113,407,897,982	27 / 28
2026-08-23	$9.55	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-24	$9.55	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-25	$9.57	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-26	$9.57	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-27	$9.57	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-28	$9.57	$113,407,897,982	26 / 28
2026-08-29	$9.59	$113,537,120,904	26 / 28
2026-08-30	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-08-31	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-09-01	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-09-02	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-09-03	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-09-04	$9.59	$113,628,089,313	26 / 28
2026-09-05	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-06	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-07	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-08	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-09	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-10	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-11	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-12	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-13	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-14	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-15	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-16	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-17	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-18	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-19	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 28
2026-09-20	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 27
2026-09-21	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 27
2026-09-22	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 27
2026-09-23	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 27
2026-09-24	$9.59	$113,628,071,338	26 / 27
2026-09-25	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-09-26	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-09-27	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-09-28	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-09-29	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-09-30	$9.60	$113,667,779,671	26 / 27
2026-10-01	$9.64	$113,854,305,015	26 / 27
2026-10-02	$9.64	$113,854,305,015	25 / 27
2026-10-03	$9.64	$113,854,305,015	25 / 27
2026-10-04	$9.64	$113,854,305,015	25 / 27
2026-10-05	$9.64	$113,854,305,015	25 / 27
2026-10-06	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-07	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-08	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-09	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-10	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-11	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-12	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-13	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-14	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27
2026-10-15	$9.64	$113,787,332,814	25 / 27

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	24	3
2026-06-01	12	24	3
2026-07-01	12	23	3
2026-08-01	12	23	4
2026-09-01	13	22	4
2026-10-01	13	21	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 21 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Evercore ISIOct 13 · prior Aug 20

$170.00 → $165.00-2.9%

HSBCSep 30

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$104.50$209.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand marketplace with exclusive partnershipsQualitative condition
Maintain dividend per share at $1.14Dividend per share: $1.14 per share
EPS of $8.0 to $8.5 per share in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Annual revenue growth of at least 4%Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 18, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Target Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a durable compounder with a focus on sustainable, profitable growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to growth initiatives.

What's priced into Target Corporation

The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with low expectations gap and a premium compared to peers. There is low fragility in the current setup, indicating that the market does not expect significant negative surprises.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued strength, as management has delivered on growth targets and operating margins. However, there is a mixed status on margin performance, which could impact future results.

What Target Corporation hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and economic conditions, including job growth, will play a crucial role in the company's performance.