Teradyne (TER)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$325.00-5.31%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Teradyne’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.73 → 11.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross profit stays near $780 million next quarter	A supporting condition in Teradyne's published investment case. The stated target is ~$780M.	Under Pressure	Gross profit falls below $600M next quarter	Gross profit: $794.618M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$780M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 31, 2026794,618,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 26fe331e-920d-468c-9fdf-1025afbd2059. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated margin improvement as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Non-GAAP income from operations margin rose from 15.1% in 2025-Q4 to 33.7% in 2026-Q2, showing significant margin expansion. The trajectory matches management's stated focus on improving profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating income stays near $470 million next quarter	A supporting condition in Teradyne's published investment case. The stated target is ~$470M.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $350M next quarter	Operating income: $437.81M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$470M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 31, 2026437,810,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 26fe331e-920d-468c-9fdf-1025afbd2059. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $1.2 billion next quarter	A primary condition in Teradyne's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.2B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below ~$1.0B next quarter	Revenue: $1.329B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.2B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 31, 20261,328,990,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 26fe331e-920d-468c-9fdf-1025afbd2059. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$11.75

$10.44 → $11.75 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.24B

$5.62B → $6.24B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.44	$5,622,114,842	11 / 14
2026-07-25	$10.28	$5,599,948,190	19 / 18
2026-07-26	$10.44	$5,622,114,842	12 / 14
2026-07-27	$10.28	$5,599,948,190	19 / 18
2026-07-28	$10.46	$5,631,989,842	12 / 14
2026-07-29	$10.33	$5,617,548,950	18 / 17
2026-07-30	$11.58	$6,171,963,057	11 / 13
2026-07-31	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-01	$11.75	$6,321,627,442	11 / 13
2026-08-02	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-03	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-04	$11.75	$6,240,852,279	11 / 13
2026-08-05	$11.75	$6,240,852,279	11 / 13
2026-08-06	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-08	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-09	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-10	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-12	$11.55	$6,221,303,320	18 / 17
2026-08-13	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-14	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-15	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-16	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-19	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-20	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-24	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-25	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-26	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-27	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-28	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-29	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-30	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-08-31	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-01	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-11	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-12	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-13	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-14	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	11 / 13
2026-09-15	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-16	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	12 / 13
2026-09-26	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	12 / 13
2026-09-27	$11.73	$6,240,343,613	12 / 13
2026-09-28	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-09-29	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-09-30	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-01	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-02	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-03	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-04	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-05	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-06	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-07	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-08	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-14	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13
2026-10-15	$11.75	$6,240,876,946	12 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	6	2
2026-06-01	12	6	2
2026-07-01	13	5	2
2026-08-01	13	5	1
2026-09-01	12	5	0
2026-10-01	12	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross profit stays near $780 million next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Operating income stays near $470 million next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $1.2 billion next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Teradyne outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on AI-related growth. The current thesis is stable, with management executing well on their priorities despite elevated risks in the sector.

What's priced into Teradyne

The market appears to have priced in a justified premium compared to peers, indicating that expectations are aligned with recent performance. However, the valuation is considered expensive, reflecting the strong demand for tech stocks in the current environment.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, driven by management's focus on revenue growth and margin expansion. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a low probability of missing expectations, which is a risk to monitor.

What Teradyne hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential rate cuts by the Fed, guidance updates from management, and the performance of key sector peers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. These elements could significantly impact market sentiment and the company's trajectory.