TEMPUS AI, INC. (TEM)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$67.61+5.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TEMPUS AI, INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	455.38M
EPS	—	-0.011
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.6B–$1.61B	1.6B
EPS	—	-0.216
EBITDA	About $65Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.97B
EPS	—	-0.028

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $65 million in 2026	It plans adjusted EBITDA near $65 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $5 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage debt and equity to support growth without excess dilution	A supporting condition in TEMPUS AI, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is No large new debt or equity sales beyond current plans.	Under Pressure	New large debt or equity sales causing dilution or risk	$460.0M new debt vs no large new debt target May 2026 8-K confirms completion of $460.0M private offering of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FDA clearance and strategic partnerships support growth	The company has FDA clearance and a new partnership.	Improving	Loss of FDA clearance or key partnerships	FDA clearance active; 3 new partnerships (BMS, Pathos, Personalis) vs target of maintaining clearance/partnerships Oct 2026 BMS/Pathos data deals; Jul 2026 Personalis merger; Jun 2026 new FDA-cleared CDx. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $1.595 billion in 2026	Tempus aims to grow revenue to about $1.6 billion in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.26B in FY26	Revenue: $382.486M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.595B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026382,486,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5af8583d-c266-417d-b344-4c80baf5787b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.03

$-0.04 → $-0.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.97B

$1.96B → $1.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.04	$1,960,347,407	10 / 14
2026-07-25	$-0.08	$1,960,931,970	12 / 18
2026-07-26	$-0.04	$1,960,347,407	10 / 14
2026-07-27	$-0.04	$1,960,347,407	10 / 14
2026-07-28	$-0.08	$1,960,931,970	12 / 18
2026-07-29	$-0.08	$1,960,931,970	12 / 18
2026-07-30	$-0.04	$1,960,333,113	10 / 14
2026-07-31	$-0.04	$1,960,333,113	10 / 14
2026-08-01	$-0.04	$1,960,333,113	10 / 14
2026-08-02	$-0.05	$1,967,362,580	12 / 18
2026-08-03	$-0.05	$1,967,362,580	12 / 18
2026-08-04	$-0.05	$1,967,362,580	12 / 18
2026-08-05	$-0.02	$1,970,165,820	11 / 18
2026-08-06	$-0.02	$1,970,165,820	11 / 18
2026-08-08	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-10	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-12	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-13	$-0.02	$1,969,932,480	12 / 18
2026-08-14	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-15	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-16	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-17	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-18	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-19	$-0.03	$1,967,397,367	10 / 14
2026-08-20	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-21	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-22	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-23	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-24	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-25	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-26	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-27	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-28	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-29	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-30	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-08-31	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-09-01	$0.03	$1,970,147,158	10 / 14
2026-09-02	$0.03	$1,970,144,916	10 / 14
2026-09-03	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 14
2026-09-04	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.02	$1,969,997,976	10 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.04	$1,967,150,788	10 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-12	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-13	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-14	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-15	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-16	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-17	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-18	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-19	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-20	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-21	$0.04	$1,967,377,099	11 / 16
2026-09-22	$0.03	$1,967,199,094	11 / 16
2026-09-23	$0.03	$1,967,199,094	12 / 16
2026-09-24	$0.03	$1,967,199,094	12 / 16
2026-09-25	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-09-26	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-09-27	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-09-28	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-09-29	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-09-30	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-10-01	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-10-02	$0.03	$1,967,200,190	12 / 17
2026-10-03	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-04	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-05	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-06	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-07	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-08	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-09	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-10	$0.03	$1,966,304,951	12 / 17
2026-10-11	$0.04	$1,966,095,007	12 / 17
2026-10-12	$0.04	$1,966,095,007	12 / 17
2026-10-13	$-0.00	$1,968,400,999	11 / 17
2026-10-14	$0.01	$1,968,400,347	12 / 17
2026-10-15	$0.01	$1,968,800,668	11 / 17
2026-10-16	$0.01	$1,968,800,668	11 / 17
2026-10-17	$0.01	$1,968,800,668	11 / 17
2026-10-18	$0.01	$1,968,800,668	11 / 17
2026-10-19	$0.01	$1,968,800,668	11 / 17
2026-10-20	$0.01	$1,968,791,144	11 / 17
2026-10-21	$0.01	$1,968,791,144	11 / 17
2026-10-22	$0.01	$1,968,791,144	11 / 17
2026-10-23	$-0.03	$1,967,555,972	11 / 16
2026-10-24	$-0.03	$1,967,555,972	11 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	6	1
2026-06-01	10	7	1
2026-07-01	10	7	1
2026-08-01	8	7	1
2026-09-01	10	9	1
2026-10-01	10	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

GuggenheimOct 1 · prior Jul 16

$65.00 → $92.00+41.5%

$0$50.60$101.20

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $65 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage debt and equity to support growth without excess dilutionPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $1.595 billion in 2026Revenue: $382.486M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TEMPUS AI, INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TEM is a growth business working toward profitability, rather than an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue goals are on track, while profitability progress is mixed and the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into TEMPUS AI, INC.

The valuation model describes TEM as cheap versus peers, with no peer premium, but model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations may be cautious, while the overall priced-in tag is justified and no fragility gates have fired.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 22% year over year, and management raised its full-year revenue guidance to about 25% growth. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive in the quarter, but the full-year goal remains uncertain; earnings quality is still loss-making, and recent financial performance is weak versus its industry cohort.

What TEMPUS AI, INC. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth and progress toward the roughly $65 million adjusted EBITDA goal. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Recent earnings have been erratic, so execution remains important despite a low near-term miss-risk classification.