Teradata (TDC)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$34.88+1.96%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Teradata’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.91 → 2.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EPS	$0.27–$0.31GAAP $0.55–$0.59non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	397.61M
EPS	—	0.564
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.65B
EPS	$2.65–$2.73non-GAAP $4.43–$4.51GAAP	2.709
Free cash flow	$330M–$350Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.67B
EPS	—	2.912

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations remains strong near $320M+ in FY26	Cash from operations rose sharply to $401M, showing strong cash flow.	Broken	Cash from operations falls below $310M in FY26	Free cash flow: $105M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $320M cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026105,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context This priority was stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations rose from $43 million in 2025-Q2 to $106 million in 2026-Q2, a 147% increase. Adjusted free cash flow, which normalizes for SAP litigation settlement impacts, increased from $39 million to $127 million over the same period. Management has consistently emphasized improving cash flow, and the financials show delivering strong progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS at or above $4.27 in FY26	A supporting condition in Teradata's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.27 EPS.	Intact	EPS falls below $4.22 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.27 EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d93d5d5-9f02-4f9d-8284-4be5327bf56f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve operating income from negative levels	A primary condition in Teradata's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves toward positive territory.	Broken	Operating income remains negative or worsens over next 4 quarters	Operating income: $48M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves toward positive territory. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202648,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d93d5d5-9f02-4f9d-8284-4be5327bf56f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management stated this priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP operating margin improved significantly from 5.9% in 2025-Q2 to 11.7% in 2026-Q2, and non-GAAP operating margin rose from 16.4% to 21.5% over the same period. Operating income doubled from $24 million to $48 million quarter-over-quarter in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering meaningful margin improvement consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth at or above -1% to 0% in FY26	A primary condition in Teradata's published investment case. The stated target is >= -1% to 0% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below -1% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -1% to 0% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.490196 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d93d5d5-9f02-4f9d-8284-4be5327bf56f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total ARR grew modestly from $1.489 billion in 2025-Q2 to $1.509 billion in 2026-Q2 (+1% reported, +2% constant currency). Recurring revenue rose from $354 million to $363 million in the same period. Management has consistently emphasized ARR and recurring revenue growth, and the financials show delivering steady, if modest, progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.91

$2.87 → $2.91 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.67B

$1.68B → $1.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.87	$1,681,975,620	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.87	$1,681,975,620	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.87	$1,681,931,756	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.87	$1,681,975,620	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.87	$1,681,975,620	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.87	$1,681,931,756	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.87	$1,681,975,620	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.87	$1,681,931,756	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.87	$1,681,931,756	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.89	$1,681,420,780	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.89	$1,681,240,741	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.89	$1,681,420,780	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.89	$1,681,240,741	5 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.89	$1,681,240,741	5 / 5
2026-08-08	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$2.91	$1,669,140,720	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-12	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$2.91	$1,669,140,720	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-15	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-16	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-17	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-18	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-19	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-20	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-21	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-22	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-23	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-24	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-25	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-26	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-27	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-28	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-29	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-30	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-08-31	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-01	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-02	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-03	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-04	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-05	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-06	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-07	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-08	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-09	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-10	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-11	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-12	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-13	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-14	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-15	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-16	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-17	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-18	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-19	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-20	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-21	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-22	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-23	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-24	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-25	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-26	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-27	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-28	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-29	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-09-30	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-01	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-02	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-03	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-04	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-05	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-06	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-07	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-08	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-09	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-10	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-11	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-12	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-16	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-17	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-18	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-19	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-20	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-21	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-22	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-23	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5
2026-10-24	$2.91	$1,669,155,008	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3	3
2026-07-01	3	3	2
2026-08-01	3	4	2
2026-09-01	2	4	2
2026-10-01	2	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations remains strong near $320M+ in FY26Published status: Broken
EPS at or above $4.27 in FY26Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share
Improve operating income from negative levelsPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above -1% to 0% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Teradata outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TDC is a value-oriented, execution-dependent business rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent results supporting progress, but its signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Teradata

TDC is valued as cheap versus peers, and the evidence says current expectations are justified rather than unusually fragile. The expectations gap is negative, so the valuation picture does not suggest the market is pricing in an especially favorable outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, management has made steady progress on recurring revenue and ARR, while operating margins and cash flow have improved meaningfully. Near term, miss risk is described as low, but a history of a deep miss and a recent trend of declining earnings surprises warrant attention; guidance was reaffirmed on August 4, 2026.

What Teradata hinges on

The central swing factor is whether TDC can keep delivering on guidance and extend its margin, cash-flow, and recurring-revenue progress. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while lower interest rates and continued strong results from major technology companies could provide a favorable sector backdrop.