TriCo Bancshares (TCBK)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$52.72-3.07%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge TriCo Bancshares’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	115.97M
EPS	—	1.105
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	114.93M
EPS	—	1.068
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	450.83M
EPS	—	4.338
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	467.8M
EPS	—	4.398

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.36 per share	TriCo Bancshares keeps paying a steady $0.36 quarterly dividend.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.36 in FY26	Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 485223bb-3143-4a27-8e39-108ded115267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters. The quarterly dividend was $0.36 per share in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q3, and the Q3 release describes it as the 148th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. The repeated payment is consistent with this capital-allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS grows to at least $4.22 in 2026	A primary condition in TriCo Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.22 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.7 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.22 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 485223bb-3143-4a27-8e39-108ded115267. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to outpace expense growth	A supporting condition in TriCo Bancshares's published investment case. The stated target is revenue growth > expense growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below expense growth over next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Implement share repurchase program up to 2 million shares	The company has a share buyback program to return capital.	Under Pressure	no share repurchases executed by end of FY26	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$4.34 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.47B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.34	$466,863,800	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$4.34	$466,863,800	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$4.34	$466,863,800	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$4.36	$466,863,800	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$4.36	$466,863,800	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$4.36	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$4.36	$469,723,800	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$4.36	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	$4.36	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-02	$4.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-04	$4.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$4.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$4.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-09	$4.38	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	3
2026-06-01	3	3
2026-07-01	3	6
2026-08-01	1	6
2026-09-01	1	6
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 1 · prior Jul 14

$61.00 → $56.50-7.4%

$0$33.55$67.10

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.36 per shareDividend per share: $0.36 per share
EPS grows to at least $4.22 in 2026Diluted EPS: $1.06 per share
Revenue growth to outpace expense growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Implement share repurchase program up to 2 million sharesPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

TriCo Bancshares outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regional bank investment with a multi-year view tied to growth, sector conditions, and completing the First Hawaiian merger. The thesis is intact, though management execution is rated volatile and recent momentum has weakened.

What's priced into TriCo Bancshares

Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with the business setup. The priced-in fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to a large expectations mismatch.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October earnings miss and a recent run of earnings misses among peers are risks, while the estimated chance of another miss is described as low. In the latest reported quarter, net income rose from the prior quarter and loans grew year over year, but company momentum fell sharply after the fresh earnings report.

What TriCo Bancshares hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued delivery of growth and financial results, and on progress toward the First Hawaiian merger, which is expected to close by the end of 2026 subject to approvals and other conditions. A guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.