Protara Therapeutics, Inc. (TARA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.33-4.51%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Protara Therapeutics, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.367
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	22.3M
EPS	—	-1.387
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.17M
EPS	—	-1.634

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive interim and final clinical trial results	A supporting condition in Protara Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive interim data and final results supporting approval.	Improving	Negative or inconclusive trial results	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage operating expenses and cash burn	A primary condition in Protara Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss no worse than -$19.6M and cash burn no worse than -$21.3M in 2026-Q1.	Broken	Operating loss or cash burn significantly worse than -$19.6M or -$21.3M in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash and investments declined from approximately $177 million in 2026-Q1 to $162 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting cash burn. Operating expenses increased from $19.6 million to $23.3 million over the same period. Management expects cash to support operations into 2028. The trajectory shows ongoing cash use consistent with clinical development. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete enrollment of ADVANCED-2 trial BCG-Unresponsive cohort	Protara aims to complete enrollment of its ADVANCED-2 trial by 2H 2026.	Intact	Enrollment not completed by end of 2026-H2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management expects to complete enrollment of the BCG-Unresponsive cohort of the ADVANCED-2 trial by 4Q 2026. This timeline is consistent across the two most recent quarters. No revenue is reported yet, consistent with ongoing enrollment. The trajectory matches management's stated timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.63

$-1.58 → $-1.63 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.00B

$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$-1.64	$1,000,000	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-12	$-1.64	$1,166,670	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$-1.64	$1,166,670	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$-1.58	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$-1.58	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$-1.58	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$-1.63	$1,000,000	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-26	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-27	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-28	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-29	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-09-30	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-01	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-02	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-03	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-04	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-05	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-06	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-07	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-08	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-09	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-10	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-11	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-16	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$-1.63	$1,166,667	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	8	0	0
2026-09-01	8	0	0
2026-10-01	8	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive interim and final clinical trial resultsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage operating expenses and cash burnPublished status: Broken
Complete enrollment of ADVANCED-2 trial BCG-Unresponsive cohortDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Protara Therapeutics, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TARA is a speculative clinical-development company, not an established earnings compounder. Its thesis is on watch: management’s trial timelines remain consistent, but the company is loss-making and recent financial performance has been weak.

What's priced into Protara Therapeutics, Inc.

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or expectations data, so it is not possible to assess whether TARA is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what the market already assumes. The available evidence points to limited current business performance, with no revenue reported from the ongoing trials.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the August earnings miss and elevated risk of another miss leave execution under pressure. Over the next several quarters, the main fundamental evidence will be progress on ADVANCED-2 enrollment and THRIVE-3 interim results, both expected in 4Q 2026, followed by a planned TARA-002 regulatory filing in the second half of 2027. These milestones do not yet provide revenue, and confidence in the assessment is low.

What Protara Therapeutics, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management meeting clinical timelines and producing results that support further development of TARA-002. A guidance cut or further weakness in jobs data would add near-term risk, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.