Synaptics (SYNA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$117.26+0.19%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Synaptics’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-27
Revenue	—	328.23M
EPS	—	1.361
Annual ending 2027-06-27
Revenue	—	1.29B
EPS	—	5.215
Annual ending 2028-06-27
Revenue	—	1.43B
EPS	—	6.496

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete acquisition by onsemi and integrate operations by mid-2027	The $7 billion acquisition by onsemi could boost growth and market reach.	Intact	Acquisition delayed beyond mid-2027 or integration fails	Qualitative: A&R Merger Agreement signed 2026-10-01 Onsemi revised the deal to an all-cash offer, and Synaptics signed the Amended and Restated Merger Agreement on October 1, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition by onsemi was announced June 25, 2026, with a revised all-cash $5.7B deal announced October 1, 2026, expected to close by mid-2027. Management consistently emphasized the strategic benefits and integration plans. The trajectory is progressing as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating cash flow improves from $21.8M in Q3	A supporting condition in Synaptics's published investment case. The stated target is Operating cash flow >= $40M.	Broken	Operating cash flow stays below $20M next two quarters	Cash from operations: $67.6M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating cash flow >= $40M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 10, 202667,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow was $30.2 million in 2026-Q1, with management emphasizing solid cash flow generation to fund organic growth initiatives. Limited recent data but trajectory shows focus on improving cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Core IoT revenue growth over 11% in FY 2026	Synaptics grows Core IoT revenue over 40% in fiscal 2026.	Intact	Core IoT revenue growth falls below 11% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core IoT product sales grew strongly, increasing 43% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, with total revenue rising from $257.7M in 2025-Q1 to $308.0M in 2026-Q4 (+19.5%). Management consistently emphasized this growth target and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross profit margin near 46% next quarter	Profit margins improve to about 46% next quarter.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 44% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin remained stable at about 53.7% in fiscal 2026, while non-GAAP operating margin improved by 300 basis points to 20% in 2026-Q4, the highest in over three years. Management's focus on margin improvement shows delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue growth near 10% YoY	A supporting condition in Synaptics's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth.	Under Pressure	Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$1.43B

$1.46B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	3 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	3 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	3 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	3 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,463,292,826	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,467,212,559	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,467,156,876	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,458,193,180	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,430,166,475	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	4
2026-06-01	10	11
2026-07-01	2	11
2026-08-01	2	11
2026-09-01	2	11
2026-10-01	2	12

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 2 · prior Jun 9

$155.00 → $123.00-20.6%

Rosenblatt SecuritiesOct 2

$123.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$85.25$170.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating cash flow improves from $21.8M in Q3Published status: Broken
Core IoT revenue growth over 11% in FY 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Gross profit margin near 46% next quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue growth near 10% YoYPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Synaptics outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-and-integration story, not a proven steady compounder: Core IoT sales are growing, while recent financial performance is weak and the business is loss-making under the snapshot’s earnings-quality measure. The long-term thesis is on watch, with acquisition execution and continued operating progress still to prove.

What's priced into Synaptics

The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, and its score has fallen recently. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions may still be difficult to exceed; the snapshot does not provide enough detail to quantify those assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term performance remains uncertain: SYNA missed its most recent quarter and has a run of consecutive misses, although the stated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, Core IoT grew 43% in fiscal 2026 and operating margin improved, while gross margin was stable; completing the onsemi acquisition and integrating operations remain important execution tasks.

What Synaptics hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would add to concern, while easing rates or continued strong results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the key tests are sustaining Core IoT growth, improving margins, and completing the onsemi deal on the expected timeline.