Synaptics (SYNA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$93.93-0.83%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Synaptics grows Core IoT revenue over 40% in fiscal 2026. Profit margins improve to about 46% next quarter. The $7 billion acquisition by onsemi could boost growth and market reach. Revenue growth stays near 10% year-over-year.
The acquisition may face delays or integration problems. Revenue growth could slow below 10%. Cash flow from operations is weak and declining. Profit margins might fall below 44%.
The price is about 16% below our fair value near $146. Analysts expect about 11% revenue growth. Our fair value is 14% above the Street median of $128. The market prices in steady growth but not acquisition risks.
Breaks if: Acquisition delayed beyond mid-2027 or integration fails
Finalize the all-stock acquisition by onsemi and integrate Synaptics' operations to expand market opportunities and accelerate growth.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth in the Internet of Things (IoT) sector. The current thesis state indicates a cautious approach due to recent weak financial performance and elevated risks.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that SYNA is seen as relatively cheap compared to its peers. However, there is a divergence in valuation, with SYNA trading at a premium to some competitors.
Management is on track to grow core IoT revenue significantly, which is a positive sign. However, the recent earnings miss and ongoing integration challenges from the onsemi acquisition may create headwinds in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on SYNA's ability to meet its growth targets and successfully integrate with onsemi. Additionally, external factors like potential Fed rate cuts and performance from sector leaders could influence SYNA's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook. Additionally, the company's commitment to growing Core IoT revenue by over 40% in FY 2026 reinforces this positive view. There are no new threats identified that would weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q4 and 2026-Q2. The all-stock acquisition by onsemi, valued at approximately $7 billion, is expected to close mid-2027. Management emphasizes integration to expand market opportunities and accelerate growth. The priority is progressing as planned with the transaction pending.
“Excited about the pending merger with onsemi, anticipated to expand market opportunities and accelerate growth.”
“Entered into definitive agreement with onsemi to be acquired in an all-stock transaction.”
Breaks if: Operating cash flow stays below $20M next two quarters
Maintain and improve operating cash flow to support investments and capital allocation priorities.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow showed variability, ranging from $21.8M in 2026-Q3 to $67.6M in 2026-Q4. Management highlights solid cash flow generation supporting investments. The trajectory shows some improvement but with fluctuations, indicating moderate progress.
“Cash from operating activities was $67.6 million in 2026-Q4.”
“Cash from operating activities was $21.8 million in 2026-Q3.”
“Cash from operating activities was $29.8 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Cash from operating activities was $30.2 million in 2026-Q1.”
Breaks if: Core IoT revenue growth falls below 11% in FY26
Continue driving strong growth in Core IoT product sales, targeting over 40% year-over-year revenue increase in fiscal 2026.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Core IoT product sales grew 43% year-over-year in fiscal 2026, driving total revenue growth from $282.8M in 2025-Q4 to $308.0M in 2026-Q4 (+8.9%). Management consistently emphasized this growth focus and the trajectory is delivering.
“Fiscal 2026 Core IoT product sales increased 43% year-over-year, representing 33% of total sales.”
“Fiscal third quarter Core IoT product sales grew by 31% year-over-year.”
“Fiscal second quarter Core IoT product sales grew by 53% year-over-year.”
“We delivered double-digit year-over-year revenue growth for the fifth consecutive quarter.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 44% next quarter
Focus on expanding gross profit margins through operational discipline and product mix improvements.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin remained stable at about 53.7% in fiscal 2026 versus prior year, while non-GAAP operating margin improved by 300 basis points to 20% in 2026-Q4. Management's focus on margin improvement is reflected in these results, indicating delivering progress.
“Non-GAAP operating margin reached 20%, highest in 13 quarters, up 300 basis points year-over-year.”
“Non-GAAP gross margin of 53.6%, exceeding guidance midpoint.”
“Non-GAAP gross margin of 53.6%, supporting operating margin expansion.”
“Gross margin guidance around 43%, reflecting focus on margin improvement.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year
Sustain and accelerate overall revenue growth across business segments.
In the next 1 to 3 years, SYNA's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external market conditions. Not investment advice.