Synchrony Financial (SYF)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$73.68-0.49%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Synchrony Financial’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.44 → 10.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain loans 30+ days past due at or below 4.39%	Synchrony keeps disciplined credit controls, lowering bad loans to 4.39%.	Intact	loans 30+ days past due rise above 4.39% in 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 6 of the last 6 quarters. Management consistently emphasized disciplined underwriting, credit strategy, and expense management while investing in growth and innovation. Financials show net earnings ranged from $774M in 2024-Q4 to $885M in 2026-Q2, with loan receivables fluctuating around $100B. The trajectory matches management's statements, delivering steady credit discipline and portfolio resilience. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase quarterly dividend to $0.34 per share	It raises dividends 13% to $0.34 per share next quarter.	Intact	dividend per share fails to reach $0.34 in 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1 and reiterated in 2026-Q2. The Board approved a 13% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.34 per share starting in 2026-Q3. Dividend per share was $0.30 in 2026-Q2 and is planned to increase to $0.34, reflecting a clear capital allocation priority with a defined implementation timeline. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve positive revenue growth near 6% YoY	A primary condition in Synchrony Financial's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year	Revenue growth: -0.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 23, 2026-0.053706 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5676fd6c-33a9-44a1-96d7-8a9d564b3668. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 6 of the last 6 quarters. Management consistently emphasized disciplined underwriting, credit strategy, and expense management while investing in growth and innovation. Financials show net earnings ranged from $774M in 2024-Q4 to $885M in 2026-Q2, with loan receivables fluctuating around $100B. The trajectory matches management's statements, delivering steady credit discipline and portfolio resilience. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Return capital via share repurchases of at least $971M per quarter	It raises dividends 13% to $0.34 per share next quarter.	Intact	capital returned falls below $971M in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board approved a new $6.5 billion share repurchase program starting 2026-Q2, replacing the prior program. Capital returned via share repurchases was $952M in 2025-Q4 and $850M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows active execution of share repurchases aligned with management's stated capital return priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.40

$10.48 → $10.40 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$15.98B

$16.03B → $15.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.48	$16,028,760,187	18 / 12
2026-07-25	$10.48	$16,003,712,530	23 / 16
2026-07-26	$10.48	$16,028,760,187	18 / 12
2026-07-27	$10.48	$16,003,712,530	23 / 16
2026-07-28	$10.48	$16,028,760,187	18 / 12
2026-07-29	$10.48	$16,003,712,530	23 / 16
2026-07-30	$10.47	$16,028,760,187	18 / 12
2026-07-31	$10.44	$16,024,026,854	18 / 12
2026-08-01	$10.44	$16,024,026,854	18 / 12
2026-08-02	$10.46	$15,999,275,030	23 / 16
2026-08-03	$10.46	$15,999,275,030	23 / 16
2026-08-04	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-05	$10.47	$15,991,665,440	23 / 16
2026-08-06	$10.47	$15,991,665,440	23 / 16
2026-08-08	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-09	$10.47	$15,983,288,740	23 / 16
2026-08-10	$10.47	$15,983,288,740	23 / 16
2026-08-12	$10.47	$15,983,314,990	23 / 16
2026-08-13	$10.47	$15,983,314,990	23 / 16
2026-08-14	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-15	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-16	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-17	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-18	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-19	$10.44	$16,015,909,965	18 / 12
2026-08-20	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-21	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-22	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-23	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-24	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-25	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-26	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-27	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-28	$10.44	$16,002,256,267	18 / 12
2026-08-29	$10.44	$16,002,327,696	18 / 12
2026-08-30	$10.44	$16,002,327,696	18 / 12
2026-08-31	$10.44	$16,002,327,696	18 / 12
2026-09-01	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-02	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-03	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-04	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-05	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-06	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-07	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-08	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-09	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-10	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-11	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-12	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-13	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-14	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-15	$10.44	$16,002,457,371	18 / 12
2026-09-16	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-17	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-18	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-19	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-20	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-21	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-22	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-23	$10.44	$16,002,457,292	18 / 12
2026-09-24	$10.36	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-25	$10.36	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-26	$10.36	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-27	$10.38	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-28	$10.38	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-29	$10.38	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-09-30	$10.38	$15,990,642,015	17 / 12
2026-10-01	$10.38	$15,982,084,286	17 / 12
2026-10-02	$10.38	$15,982,045,939	17 / 12
2026-10-03	$10.38	$15,982,045,939	17 / 12
2026-10-04	$10.38	$15,982,045,939	17 / 12
2026-10-05	$10.39	$15,982,045,939	17 / 12
2026-10-06	$10.39	$15,982,045,939	17 / 12
2026-10-07	$10.39	$15,975,469,626	17 / 12
2026-10-08	$10.40	$15,984,700,395	17 / 12
2026-10-09	$10.40	$15,980,999,313	17 / 10
2026-10-10	$10.40	$15,996,570,791	18 / 11
2026-10-11	$10.40	$15,996,570,791	18 / 11
2026-10-12	$10.40	$15,996,570,791	18 / 11
2026-10-13	$10.40	$15,996,570,791	18 / 11
2026-10-14	$10.41	$15,992,444,041	18 / 11
2026-10-15	$10.40	$15,976,945,589	18 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	9
2026-06-01	15	9
2026-07-01	16	9
2026-08-01	16	9
2026-09-01	16	9
2026-10-01	16	8

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Apr 21

$84.00 → $83.00-1.2%

BMO CapitalOct 8

$81.00New observation · no comparable prior

Seaport GlobalOct 7

$93.00New observation · no comparable prior

UBSOct 5 · prior Aug 3

$87.00 → $81.00-6.9%

$0$51.15$102.30

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain loans 30+ days past due at or below 4.39%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase quarterly dividend to $0.34 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve positive revenue growth near 6% YoYRevenue growth: -0.05%
Return capital via share repurchases of at least $971M per quarterDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Synchrony Financial outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on disciplined underwriting and capital return to shareholders. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Synchrony Financial

The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about SYF's near-term prospects. Valuation appears cheap compared to peers, suggesting that there may be room for improvement if fundamentals strengthen.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, given the robust earnings quality and management's focus on maintaining credit discipline. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although recent trends show a slight decline in earnings surprises.

What Synchrony Financial hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the performance of sector bellwethers like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express, as well as the potential impact of Federal Reserve rate changes. Any cuts to guidance or shifts in the interest rate environment could negatively affect SYF.