Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)

NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$92.48-0.29%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Stanley Black & Decker’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.38 → 6.35 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS reaches at least $4.9 in 2026	A primary condition in Stanley Black & Decker's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.9 USD per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.9 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 332e210a-c0f3-439f-9b46-ff69a24d23a6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow reaches at least $500 million in 2026	Free cash flow target is $700 million.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $500 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $698.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=500 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026698,200,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 0.6% in next 12 months	A supporting condition in Stanley Black & Decker's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.6% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 0.6% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.35

$6.23 → $6.35 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$15.41B

$15.45B → $15.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.23	$15,453,812,417	8 / 10
2026-07-25	$6.23	$15,453,812,417	8 / 10
2026-07-26	$6.23	$15,453,812,417	8 / 10
2026-07-27	$6.23	$15,453,812,417	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$6.24	$15,511,227,802	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$6.24	$15,511,227,802	8 / 10
2026-07-30	$6.29	$15,523,776,975	8 / 10
2026-07-31	$6.35	$15,476,990,110	8 / 10
2026-08-01	$6.35	$15,476,990,110	8 / 10
2026-08-02	$6.36	$15,480,918,681	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$6.36	$15,480,918,681	9 / 10
2026-08-04	$6.36	$15,480,918,681	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$6.36	$15,480,918,681	9 / 10
2026-08-06	$6.36	$15,480,918,681	9 / 10
2026-08-08	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-09	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-10	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-12	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-13	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-14	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-15	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$6.38	$15,473,348,317	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$6.38	$15,478,820,615	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$6.38	$15,478,823,286	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$6.38	$15,478,823,286	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$6.38	$15,478,823,286	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$6.38	$15,478,823,286	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$6.38	$15,478,823,286	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$6.39	$15,477,434,965	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-13	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-14	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-15	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-16	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-17	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-18	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-19	$6.38	$15,465,012,472	9 / 10
2026-09-20	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$6.38	$15,465,030,158	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$6.38	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$6.38	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$6.39	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$6.39	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$6.39	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$6.39	$15,478,815,872	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$6.36	$15,421,187,301	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$6.36	$15,412,508,008	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$6.35	$15,407,717,654	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	11	1
2026-06-01	6	11	1
2026-07-01	5	11	0
2026-08-01	4	11	0
2026-09-01	4	11	0
2026-10-01	4	11	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15

$105.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Aug 10

$96.00 → $100.00+4.2%

$0$57.75$115.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS reaches at least $4.9 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow reaches at least $500 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 0.6% in next 12 monthsDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Stanley Black & Decker outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on organic growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral compared to peers, and the company is under watch due to potential sector headwinds.

What's priced into Stanley Black & Decker

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, with a valuation that is considered cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap indicating that the market is not overly optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities such as delivering profitable growth and executing a cost reduction program. However, the mixed results in debt reduction and recent performance below industry peers suggest a cautious near-term outlook.

What Stanley Black & Decker hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SNA, RBC, and LECO. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could support SWK, while any misses could create further challenges.