SUNOCOCORP LLC (SUNC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-23

$72.97+0.65%

Close 2026-10-20 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SUNOCOCORP LLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.8B
EPS	—	2.15
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	46.26B
EPS	—	8.564
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	47.12B
EPS	—

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $867 million in 2026-Q1	Adjusted EBITDA was $867 million in the same quarter.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $867 million in 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $867 million in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Annual distribution growth rate of at least 5%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Net income of $644 million in 2026-Q1Net income: $39M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SUNOCOCORP LLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an income-oriented energy business with a growth component, rather than a clear turnaround: management is delivering on distribution growth, EBITDA growth, and fuel expansion priorities. The long-term thesis is intact, but the signal has turned mixed and the next-quarter earnings risk is elevated.

What's priced into SUNOCOCORP LLC

SUNC is assessed as cheap versus peers, with the market’s expectations below the model’s baseline, though confidence in that valuation assessment is low. The priced-in evidence points to limited fragility: a turbulent sector is the main concern, rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and sector stress.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent earnings misses and elevated risk of another miss make results less dependable, despite strong reported performance. Across 2026-Q1 and Q2, Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled year over year, fuel volumes rose, and quarterly distributions grew by over 10% year over year. Management’s stated priorities remain on track, but a guidance reversal after the recent increase would weaken credibility.

What SUNOCOCORP LLC hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on sustaining EBITDA and fuel-distribution growth while continuing at least 5% annual distribution growth. Near term, a further earnings miss or guidance cut could challenge confidence; continued strong results would support management’s record. Energy-sector bellwethers such as ENB, WMB, and KMI are also useful signals: continued strength would sustain the sector tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the business case rests on strong operating execution and continued distribution growth, balanced against earnings uncertainty and a recent listing-rule notice. The long-term thesis is intact, but near-term evidence is mixed. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

SUNOCOCORP LLC (SUNC) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

What could strengthen or challenge SUNOCOCORP LLC’s outlook?

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

SUNOCOCORP LLC outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into SUNOCOCORP LLC

What the fundamentals likely do

What SUNOCOCORP LLC hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line