SUNOCO LP (SUN)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$73.56+1.80%

Close 2026-10-20 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SUNOCO LP’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	11.37B
EPS	—	1.984
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	47.49B
EPS	—	8.638
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	47.83B
EPS	—	9.095

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital spending near $199 million in 2026	It plans to spend about $199 million on capital projects in 2026.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $250 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual dividend growth rate of at least 5% in 2026	A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% annual dividend growth.	Intact	Dividend growth falls below 5% in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of Parkland acquisition	A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is Integration progress score >= 70%.	Improving	Integration progress score falls below 60% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context This priority was stated in prior periods but is not explicitly mentioned in the current supplied disclosures. No new evidence of progress or restatement is available in the current inputs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue growth at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in SUNOCO LP's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 164.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026164.545455 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c7966108-49c9-4b91-b39b-32c86d4556ba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context This priority was stated in prior periods but is not explicitly mentioned in the current supplied disclosures. No new evidence of progress or restatement is available in the current inputs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$9.89 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$9.84	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-26	$9.84	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$9.73	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-28	$9.73	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-02	$9.73	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-04	$9.73	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-08	$10.03	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$10.03	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-13	$10.03	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Aug 5

$80.00 → $83.00+3.8%

$0$45.65$91.30

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital spending near $199 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Annual dividend growth rate of at least 5% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Successful integration of Parkland acquisitionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue growth at or above 7% annuallyPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SUNOCO LP outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an energy-sector business with a current results-driven thesis and a supportive sector backdrop. The long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and recent earnings surprises have been erratic.

What's priced into SUNOCO LP

The evidence characterizes current pricing as justified, with low concern that weak execution and a turbulent sector are being overlooked. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot provides no peer comparison or detail on what specific operating assumptions the market already expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the next report carries execution risk: SUN missed its most recent quarter, despite strong recent financial performance overall. For 2026, reported EBITDA growth and higher guidance support management’s stated plan, while distribution growth is on track; capital spending progress is mixed.

What SUNOCO LP hinges on

A key swing factor is whether SUN sustains its raised 2026 guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from MPC, VLO, and PSX would support the tailwind, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.