Starwood Property Trust (STWD)

NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-23

$12.580.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Starwood Property Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.90 → 1.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	554.57M
EPS	—	0.427
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.14B
EPS	—	1.501
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.37B
EPS	—	1.889

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.48 per share	It keeps paying $0.48 dividend per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.48 next year	Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.48 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 90d0abee-c29d-4d29-b8da-72fce4ab00f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Dividend per share has been consistently maintained at $0.48 from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This reflects management's commitment to stable shareholder returns and is delivering as stated. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow revenue to at least $2.13 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Starwood Property Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.13 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.13 billion in FY26	Revenue: $513.668M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.13 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026513,668,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 90d0abee-c29d-4d29-b8da-72fce4ab00f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $1.1 billion senior notes offering to fund buybacks	The company funds buybacks with $1.1 billion in senior notes.	Under Pressure	Buyback funding falls short of $1.1 billion by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced private offerings of $600M and $500M senior notes in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 respectively, intended to fund share buybacks and repay debt. These actions demonstrate execution on capital allocation priorities, delivering on announced share repurchase programs. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.89

$1.91 → $1.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-25	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-26	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-27	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-28	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-29	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-30	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-07-31	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-01	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-02	$1.91	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-03	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-04	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-05	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-06	$1.91	Unavailable	9 / 4
2026-08-08	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-09	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-10	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-12	$1.91	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-13	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-14	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-15	$1.91	Unavailable	6 / 3
2026-08-16	$1.91	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-17	$1.91	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-18	$1.91	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-19	$1.91	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-20	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-21	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-22	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-23	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-24	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-25	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-26	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-27	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-28	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-29	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-30	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-31	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-01	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-02	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-03	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-04	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-05	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-06	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-07	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-08	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-09	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-10	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-11	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-12	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-13	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-14	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-15	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-16	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-17	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-18	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-19	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-20	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-21	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-22	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-23	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-24	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-25	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-26	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-27	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-28	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-29	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-30	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-01	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-02	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-03	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-04	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-05	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-06	$1.90	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-07	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-08	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-09	$1.88	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$1.87	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$1.89	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	7	2
2026-07-01	7	2
2026-08-01	7	2
2026-09-01	7	2
2026-10-01	7	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.48 per shareDividend per share: $0.48 per share
Grow revenue to at least $2.13 billion in FY26Revenue: $513.668M
Complete $1.1 billion senior notes offering to fund buybacksPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Starwood Property Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

STWD is a commercial real estate finance company with a moderate-risk, income-focused profile. Its long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal has improved to mildly favorable, but management execution is volatile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Starwood Property Trust

The valuation evidence puts STWD at a 1.0 premium versus peers and rates it expensive. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, and the priced-in assessment says the valuation is justified, with low fragility rather than a broad stack of risks already built into expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong, with revenue growth through 2026-Q1 and positive, though fluctuating, net income. Management is on track with resolving nearly $900 million of underperforming assets and executing share buybacks, while the $0.48 dividend has been maintained but is rated mixed. Near term, an earnings miss run and a 43% estimated miss probability make the next report a risk to watch.

What Starwood Property Trust hinges on

The thesis depends in part on resolving underperforming assets and sustaining financial performance without a guidance cut. A guidance reduction would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. The effect of possible rate cuts is another swing factor, since the evidence says the sector tends to do better when rates stay high.