Sutro Biopharma Inc (STRO)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-26

$8.88-4.77%

Close 2026-10-26 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 26, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sutro Biopharma Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	12.75M
EPS	—	-1.555
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	49.88M
EPS	—	-8.029
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	34.23M
EPS	—	-6.39

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating loss improves to better than -$30M	Operating loss was $29.66M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	operating loss worsens beyond -$30M	Operating income: $-29.888M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss better than -$30M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 12, 2026-29,888,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 26, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f056b3e4-2af2-4dca-ae65-9b20db64667c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue decline slows to less than -10% YoY	A primary condition in Sutro Biopharma Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline less than -10% YoY.	Broken	revenue decline worse than -10% YoY	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 26, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
ATM stock sale program remains terminated	The company ended its ATM stock sale program to focus on financial health.	Intact	ATM program restarted or new dilution program announced	ATM program terminated (Mar 2026) M&A activity event confirms termination of the ATM program with Jefferies on March 23, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 26, 2026Last status assessment Oct 26, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-6.39

Unavailable → $-6.39 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.03B

$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-07-26	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-07-29	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-07-30	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-08-01	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-08-04	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-05	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$31,558,370	4 / 12
2026-08-08	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-09	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$31,558,370	3 / 12
2026-08-12	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$-7.39	$34,427,315	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$-7.39	$34,427,315	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-21	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-22	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-23	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-24	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-25	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-26	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-30	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-08-31	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-01	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-02	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-21	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-22	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-23	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-24	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-25	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-26	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-27	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-28	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-29	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-09-30	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-01	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-02	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-03	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-04	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-05	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-06	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-07	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-08	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-09	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-10	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-11	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-12	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-13	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-14	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-15	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-16	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-17	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-18	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-19	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-20	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-21	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-22	$-6.39	$34,224,426	8 / 10
2026-10-23	$-6.39	$34,228,009	8 / 10
2026-10-24	$-6.39	$34,228,009	8 / 10
2026-10-25	$-6.39	$34,228,009	8 / 10
2026-10-26	$-6.39	$34,228,009	8 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	1	1
2026-06-01	13	0	1
2026-07-01	12	0	1
2026-08-01	13	0	1
2026-09-01	13	0	1
2026-10-01	13	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 27–Oct 26 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 27, 2026–Oct 26, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating loss improves to better than -$30MOperating income: $-29.888M
Revenue decline slows to less than -10% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-78.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sutro Biopharma Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth company built around clinical development, not an established earnings compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis remains intact, but elevated risk and medium confidence mean progress depends on meeting development milestones and maintaining funding.

What's priced into Sutro Biopharma Inc

The valuation evidence is mixed: STRO is described as cheap versus peers, while also carrying a 37% premium to peers, and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is justified with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap and recent earnings misses leave limited clarity on what expectations the market already assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, losses and a high risk of another earnings miss remain important concerns, despite operating expenses falling from the prior year's level. Over the multi-year view, management is advancing STRO-004 and its next-generation antibody-drug conjugates, while reporting a cash runway into at least Q2 2028; cash declined in the latest quarter, and expense-control progress is mixed.

What Sutro Biopharma Inc hinges on

The thesis depends on continued clinical progress, including advancement of STRO-006 and the planned STRO-227 IND submission, while keeping enough cash to fund operations. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add near-term pressure, while strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.