STMicroelectronics NV (STM)

NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.02-0.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge STMicroelectronics NV’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.68 → 2.69 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	4.1B
EPS	—	0.552
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	14.42B
EPS	—	1.351
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	17.16B
EPS	—	2.69

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
AI data-center revenue approaches $1 billion	The company benefits from strong AI data-center demand near $1 billion revenue.	Intact	AI data-center revenue fails to grow or declines materially	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings per share reach at least $2.50 in FY27	Profit per share rises to $2.50 next year.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.28 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
total revenue reaches at least $16.7 billion in FY27	A primary condition in STMicroelectronics NV's published investment case. The stated target is >= $16.7 billion.	Intact	revenue falls below $14.3 billion in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.69

$2.54 → $2.69 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.16B

$16.83B → $17.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.54	$16,825,916,350	9 / 19
2026-07-25	$2.47	$16,902,969,450	9 / 19
2026-07-26	$2.64	$16,953,697,789	6 / 11
2026-07-27	$2.64	$16,953,697,789	6 / 11
2026-07-28	$2.47	$16,902,961,609	9 / 19
2026-07-29	$2.64	$16,953,697,789	6 / 11
2026-07-30	$2.46	$16,981,247,660	9 / 19
2026-07-31	$2.62	$17,008,438,615	6 / 11
2026-08-01	$2.62	$17,008,438,615	6 / 11
2026-08-02	$2.53	$16,981,247,660	9 / 19
2026-08-03	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-04	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-05	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-06	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-08	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-09	$2.53	$17,003,345,080	9 / 19
2026-08-10	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-12	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-13	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-14	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-15	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-16	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-17	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-18	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-19	$2.65	$17,062,235,920	6 / 11
2026-08-20	$2.68	$17,080,468,583	6 / 11
2026-08-21	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-22	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-23	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-24	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-25	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-26	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-27	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-28	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-29	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-30	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-08-31	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-09-01	$2.68	$17,117,859,886	6 / 11
2026-09-02	$2.68	$17,119,077,278	6 / 11
2026-09-03	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-04	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-05	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-06	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-07	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-08	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-09	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-10	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-11	$2.68	$17,119,095,930	6 / 11
2026-09-12	$2.67	$17,119,105,485	6 / 11
2026-09-13	$2.67	$17,119,105,485	6 / 11
2026-09-14	$2.67	$17,119,105,485	6 / 11
2026-09-15	$2.67	$17,119,104,384	6 / 11
2026-09-16	$2.67	$17,119,104,384	6 / 11
2026-09-17	$2.67	$17,119,104,384	6 / 11
2026-09-18	$2.67	$17,119,191,341	6 / 11
2026-09-19	$2.68	$17,119,191,341	6 / 11
2026-09-20	$2.68	$17,119,191,341	6 / 11
2026-09-21	$2.68	$17,119,191,341	6 / 11
2026-09-22	$2.68	$17,119,191,341	6 / 11
2026-09-23	$2.68	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-24	$2.68	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-25	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-26	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-27	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-28	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-29	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-09-30	$2.70	$17,124,980,329	6 / 11
2026-10-01	$2.71	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-02	$2.71	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-03	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-04	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-05	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-06	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-07	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-08	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-09	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-10	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-11	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-12	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-13	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-14	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-15	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-16	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-17	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-18	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-19	$2.69	$17,134,136,851	6 / 11
2026-10-20	$2.68	$17,143,494,691	6 / 11
2026-10-21	$2.68	$17,143,494,691	6 / 11
2026-10-22	$2.69	$17,162,581,647	6 / 11
2026-10-23	$2.69	$17,162,581,647	6 / 11
2026-10-24	$2.69	$17,162,581,647	6 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	8	1
2026-06-01	8	8	1
2026-07-01	8	7	0
2026-08-01	8	7	0
2026-09-01	8	6	0
2026-10-01	8	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

AI data-center revenue approaches $1 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
earnings per share reach at least $2.50 in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping
total revenue reaches at least $16.7 billion in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

STMicroelectronics NV outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a technology-sector exposure, but the evidence does not establish it as a durable compounder, turnaround, or another clear type of bet. The current thesis state is insufficient, and overall confidence is low.

What's priced into STMicroelectronics NV

The valuation label recently changed from full to fair, but the snapshot does not provide a peer comparison or specific market expectations. No fragility warning was triggered, though that alone does not clarify what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

The snapshot offers too little recent financial-performance history to judge the multi-year business trajectory. Near-term earnings risk is described as low, but recent results have included misses and erratic surprises.

What STMicroelectronics NV hinges on

Near term, rate cuts from the current 3.88% level could support technology-sector conditions, while weaker results or guidance from NVDA, TSM, or AVGO could remove that support. The multi-year view also hinges on STM’s own financial performance, which this evidence does not establish.