Sensata Technologies (ST)

NYSEIndustrialsHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$40.38-0.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sensata Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.09 → 4.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$957M–$987M	—
EPS	$0.93–$0.97non-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	972.05M
EPS	—	0.972
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.87B
EPS	—	3.763
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.04B
EPS	—	4.081

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Tender offers totaling $400 million by Q2 2026	The company actively manages debt with $400 million in tender offers.	Under Pressure	Tender offers do not reach $350 million by 2026-Q2	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $0.92 in Q2 2026	Sensata grows revenue about 5% a year, with EPS near $0.92 next quarter.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.89 per share in 2026-Q2	Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.89 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 29, 20260.7 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bea4f585-c44a-4002-b1a5-fd7cc91edf80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income at least $141.6 million in Q1 2026	Operating income rose from $122 million to $142 million in one year.	Intact	Operating income falls below $122 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $165.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $141.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 29, 2026165,400,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bea4f585-c44a-4002-b1a5-fd7cc91edf80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $965 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Sensata Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is ~$965 million.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $915 million in 2026-Q2	Revenue: $990.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$965 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Jul 29, 2026990,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bea4f585-c44a-4002-b1a5-fd7cc91edf80. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.08

$4.06 → $4.08 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.04B

$4.02B → $4.04B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.06	$4,015,177,520	13 / 11
2026-07-25	$4.06	$4,015,177,520	13 / 11
2026-07-26	$4.04	$4,020,144,814	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$4.06	$4,015,177,520	13 / 11
2026-07-28	$4.06	$4,015,177,520	13 / 11
2026-07-29	$4.07	$4,015,414,380	12 / 10
2026-07-30	$4.07	$4,015,414,380	12 / 10
2026-07-31	$4.10	$4,045,182,040	12 / 10
2026-08-01	$4.08	$4,044,244,584	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-03	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-05	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-06	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-08	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-09	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$4.09	$4,045,691,640	12 / 10
2026-08-12	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$4.07	$4,043,971,856	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-21	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-22	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-23	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-24	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-25	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-26	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-27	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-28	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-29	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-30	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-08-31	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-01	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-02	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-03	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$4.09	$4,047,382,535	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$4.09	$4,042,590,038	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$4.09	$4,042,753,674	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$4.09	$4,041,966,493	7 / 7
2026-10-08	$4.09	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-09	$4.09	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-10	$4.09	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-11	$4.09	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-12	$4.09	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$4.08	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$4.08	$4,037,737,739	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$4.08	$4,036,201,375	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.08	$4,036,156,497	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	7
2026-06-01	6	7
2026-07-01	6	7
2026-08-01	5	7
2026-09-01	6	7
2026-10-01	6	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 7 · prior Jun 2

$57.00 → $54.00-5.3%

$0$31.35$62.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Tender offers totaling $400 million by Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
EPS near $0.92 in Q2 2026Diluted EPS: $0.70 per share
Operating income at least $141.6 million in Q1 2026Operating income: $165.4M
Revenue near $965 million in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-24.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sensata Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ST is a quality industrial business with robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis has made progress on growth, margins, and cash flow, but its state is watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Sensata Technologies

The valuation signals are mixed: one measure points to ST being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 40% premium to peers, and the expectations gap is negative. The overall priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the valuation evidence is not fully aligned and confidence in the model is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

From 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q2, revenue rose 8.7% and operating income rose 35.3%, supporting management’s stated focus on organic growth and margin expansion. First-half 2026 free cash flow was strong, and debt declined in Q2, though balance-sheet progress is rated mixed; near term, guidance cuts and weaker peer results are key risks.

What Sensata Technologies hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to deliver growth, margin expansion, and cash flow while strengthening the balance sheet. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong earnings and guidance from industrial bellwethers could support sector momentum; misses or weaker guidance from those companies could remove that support.