SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.36-0.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SoundThinking, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	26.28M
EPS	—	-0.06
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	99.37M
EPS	—	-1.115
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	111.22M
EPS	—	-0.458

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of 16% to 18% in 2026	A primary condition in SoundThinking, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 16% to 18%.	Broken	Margin falls below 14% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management revised the full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance down from 16%-18% in 2026-Q1 to 8%-9% in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin declined from 13% in 2025-Q2 to 5% in 2026-Q2, reflecting a challenging operating environment. The trajectory shows limited progress and downward revision, indicating difficulty delivering on prior margin targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Move from loss to positive EPS by FY27	A supporting condition in SoundThinking, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.07.	Broken	EPS remains negative or declines through FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.07. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 2026-0.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 12828455-d931-410c-86a0-232c3eb0e4be. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of $109M to $111M in 2026	A primary condition in SoundThinking, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $109M to $111M.	Broken	Revenue falls below $104M in FY26	Revenue: $23.889M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $109M to $111M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 202623,889,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 12828455-d931-410c-86a0-232c3eb0e4be. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$118,787,000	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	4
2026-09-01	2	6
2026-10-01	0	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Craig-HallumOct 2

$8.50New observation · no comparable prior

Roth CapitalSep 30 · prior Aug 14

$13.00 → $9.00-30.8%

JefferiesSep 30

$9.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA margin of 16% to 18% in 2026Published status: Broken
Move from loss to positive EPS by FY27Published status: Broken
Achieve revenue of $109M to $111M in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SoundThinking, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making business with a turnaround-style thesis rather than a proven compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, and the available evidence gives only medium confidence.

What's priced into SoundThinking, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: SSTI is described as cheap versus peers, but also shows a 28% premium versus peers, with low model confidence. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations are already cautious, yet the recent cuts to revenue, margin, and ARR goals leave little evidence of improving fundamentals being priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated, following a run of misses, and company momentum has weakened. Management lowered 2026 revenue guidance to approximately $99M-$100M and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 8%-9%; quarterly revenue and margin were also lower than a year earlier. The completed acquisition and newly filed litigation add uncertainty, while the evidence does not show their financial effects.

What SoundThinking, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether management can stabilize revenue and margins and make progress toward ARR above $100M by the start of 2027. A next-quarter guidance increase after the recent cut would be a positive change; continued misses or further reductions would reinforce the current execution concerns. Lower interest rates and stronger results from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, but they would not resolve SSTI’s company-specific challenges.