SoundThinking, Inc. (SSTI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.79-3.34%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve revenue of $109M to $111M in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $99.5M vs $109M-$111M target; below $104M trip condition.
SoundThinking aims for $109M to $111M revenue in 2026. Profit margin target is 16% to 18%. Analysts expect revenue growth near 12%. The company shows some progress after past misses.
Revenue fell from $25.1M in 2025-Q3 to $24.18M in 2026-Q1. The company is still losing money. Recent earnings misses and leadership changes hurt confidence.
Price is about 45% below our fair value near $16. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth. The market prices in cautious optimism but also risk.
Breaks if: Margin falls below 14% in FY26
Focus on improving operating leverage and profitability with revised full-year Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 8% to 9%.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company revised its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance down from 16%-18% in 2026-Q1 to 8%-9% in 2026-Q2, reflecting softer-than-expected results and a challenging environment. This indicates limited progress against original margin targets.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a speculative growth investment with a medium confidence level. The current thesis state is cautious due to recent earnings misses and declining revenue expectations.
The market appears to price SSTI as cheap compared to its peers, but there is a significant expectations gap. The valuation reflects a justified stance given the company's loss-making status and recent performance.
SSTI's fundamentals are under pressure, with a high probability of missing earnings in the near term. Management's revised guidance indicates a declining trajectory for revenue and margins, which could continue to weigh on performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including a potential reversal in guidance, changes in interest rates, and the performance of key sector players. Positive shifts in these areas could improve sentiment and performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has raised concerns about growth. Revenue guidance for 2026 is now set at $99M to $100M, below the target. This change threatens the company's ability to achieve its previous revenue goals.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Company revised its full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance range to 8% to 9% compared to previous guidance of 16% to 18%.”
“Company reaffirmed its Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance range of 16% to 18% for the full year 2026.”
Breaks if: EPS remains negative or declines through FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $104M in FY26
Target full-year 2026 revenue in the range of $109 million to $111 million, with updates reflecting market conditions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SSTI's outlook remains uncertain, heavily influenced by its ability to stabilize operations and improve financial results. Not investment advice.