South State Bank (SSB)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$105.51+0.28%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge South State Bank’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.27 → 10.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	703.61M
EPS	—	2.427
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	702.05M
EPS	—	2.422
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.73B
EPS	—	9.407
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.92B
EPS	—	10.273

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.60 next quarter	Dividends increased from $0.54 to $0.60 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.60 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.60. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d1596626-26dc-44ce-953e-0678ceff892c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows to at least $225.8 million next quarter	South State Bank grows net income steadily.	Intact	Net income falls below $225.8 million next quarter	Net income: $230.022M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $225.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026230,022,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d1596626-26dc-44ce-953e-0678ceff892c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income grows to at least $291.4 million next quarter	Operating income rose to $291 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $291.4 million next quarter	Operating income: $-94.547M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $291.4 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 31, 2026-94,547,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.27

$10.34 → $10.27 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.92B

$2.91B → $2.92B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.34	$2,909,973,230	14 / 11
2026-07-25	$10.34	$2,909,973,230	14 / 11
2026-07-26	$10.34	$2,911,459,607	11 / 8
2026-07-27	$10.33	$2,906,291,410	14 / 11
2026-07-28	$10.34	$2,911,459,607	11 / 8
2026-07-29	$10.34	$2,911,459,607	11 / 8
2026-07-30	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-07-31	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-01	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-02	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-03	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-04	$10.38	$2,906,598,340	14 / 12
2026-08-05	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-06	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-08	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-09	$10.38	$2,906,598,340	14 / 12
2026-08-10	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-12	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-13	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-15	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-16	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-17	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-18	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-19	$10.30	$2,906,617,356	11 / 9
2026-08-20	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-21	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-22	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-23	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-24	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-25	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-26	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-27	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-28	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-29	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-30	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-08-31	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-01	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-02	$10.30	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-03	$10.28	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-04	$10.28	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-05	$10.28	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-06	$10.28	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-07	$10.28	$2,906,619,089	11 / 9
2026-09-08	$10.28	$2,907,313,347	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$10.27	$2,907,313,347	11 / 9
2026-09-10	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-11	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-13	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-14	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-15	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-16	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-17	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-18	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-19	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-20	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-21	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-22	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-23	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-24	$10.27	$2,907,317,356	11 / 9
2026-09-25	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-09-27	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-09-28	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-09-29	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-09-30	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-10-01	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-10-02	$10.27	$2,907,562,772	11 / 9
2026-10-03	$10.31	$2,912,128,249	11 / 9
2026-10-04	$10.31	$2,912,128,249	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$10.30	$2,912,128,249	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$10.31	$2,910,687,994	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$10.31	$2,910,687,994	11 / 9
2026-10-08	$10.30	$2,910,717,318	11 / 9
2026-10-09	$10.30	$2,910,721,327	11 / 8
2026-10-10	$10.30	$2,910,721,327	11 / 8
2026-10-11	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-12	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-13	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-14	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-15	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-16	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-17	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 8
2026-10-18	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 9
2026-10-19	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 9
2026-10-20	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 9
2026-10-21	$10.30	$2,911,134,194	11 / 9
2026-10-22	$10.30	$2,911,175,153	11 / 9
2026-10-23	$10.26	$2,914,184,677	11 / 9
2026-10-24	$10.27	$2,916,118,010	11 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	1
2026-06-01	12	1
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	12	2
2026-09-01	12	2
2026-10-01	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 9 · prior Jul 28

$118.00 → $113.00-4.2%

BarclaysOct 5 · prior Jul 7

$118.00 → $120.00+1.7%

$0$66.00$132.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increases to at least $0.60 next quarterDividend per share: $0.60 per share
Net income grows to at least $225.8 million next quarterNet income: $230.022M
Operating income grows to at least $291.4 million next quarterOperating income: $-94.547M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

South State Bank outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SSB is a bank with a growth and capital-return thesis, supported by loan and deposit growth, share repurchases, and a higher dividend. The multi-year view is intact, though the recent earnings miss and fragile earnings quality make execution a key concern.

What's priced into South State Bank

The evidence describes valuation as stretched, while also indicating that SSB is cheap versus peers; those signals point to a mixed valuation picture. The expectations gap is modest, and the evidence does not show that the market is pricing in a large execution failure.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the earnings miss and sharp decline in company momentum weaken the recent signal, although the stated risk of another miss is low. In 2026-Q3, loans and deposits each grew at a 9% annualized rate for the quarter, while repurchases and the dividend increase show capital returns; execution quality remains fragile.

What South State Bank hinges on

Over the next year, the rate backdrop matters: the evidence says Financials tend to perform better when rates stay high, so rate cuts could weigh on the sector. Sector earnings are another swing factor: continued strong results and higher guidance from HDB, IBN, and USB could sustain support, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.