Scholar Rock Holding Corp. (SRRK)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.49-1.12%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Scholar Rock Holding Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	5.32M
EPS	—	-0.817
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	5.57M
EPS	—	-3.335
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	142.43M
EPS	—	-2.611

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Launch apitegromab by September 2026	Scholar Rock aims to launch apitegromab by September 2026.	Intact	Launch delayed beyond September 2026	FDA decision date Sept 30, 2026 vs target Sept 30, 2026 FDA decision expected Sept 30, 2026; JPMorgan raised price target on launch outlook. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including the FDA approval announcement in September 2026. Management consistently emphasized the September 30, 2026 PDUFA date for apitegromab approval and readiness for immediate U.S. launch. The FDA approved ISEMBYLD on September 11, 2026, and commercial launch is underway, demonstrating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Extend cash runway into 2027	The company plans to extend cash into 2027.	Intact	Cash runs out before end of 2027	Cash and cash equivalents: $437.091M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash runway into 2027. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source date unavailable437,091,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities increased from $480 million in 2026-Q1 to $492 million in 2026-Q2. Management's expectation of cash runway into 2027 aligns with the stable and growing cash position, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Resubmit BLA for apitegromab	A supporting condition in Scholar Rock Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is BLA resubmitted and accepted by FDA.	Intact	BLA not accepted by FDA within 6 months of resubmission	BLA resubmitted 2026-03-31; PDUFA date late Sept 2026 News confirms BLA resubmission and upcoming FDA decision date, supporting the regulatory timeline. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-2.61

$-2.55 → $-2.61 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.14B

$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-07-26	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-07-28	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-07-30	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-07-31	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-01	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-02	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-04	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-06	$-2.55	$149,468,480	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$-2.58	$146,122,790	16 / 15
2026-08-09	$-2.58	$146,122,790	16 / 15
2026-08-10	$-2.58	$146,122,790	16 / 15
2026-08-12	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-13	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-14	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-15	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-16	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-17	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-18	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-19	$-2.55	$149,441,815	13 / 12
2026-08-20	$-2.55	$147,965,503	13 / 12
2026-08-21	$-2.55	$147,965,503	13 / 12
2026-08-22	$-2.55	$147,965,503	13 / 12
2026-08-23	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-24	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-25	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-26	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-27	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-28	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-29	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-30	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-08-31	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-01	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-02	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-03	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-04	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-05	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-06	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-07	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-08	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-09	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-10	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-11	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-12	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-13	$-2.56	$146,161,440	13 / 12
2026-09-14	$-2.56	$146,161,440	12 / 11
2026-09-15	$-2.60	$149,472,791	13 / 12
2026-09-16	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-17	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-18	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-19	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-20	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-21	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-22	$-2.61	$142,066,310	13 / 12
2026-09-23	$-2.61	$142,889,839	13 / 12
2026-09-24	$-2.61	$142,889,839	13 / 12
2026-09-25	$-2.61	$142,948,663	13 / 12
2026-09-26	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-09-27	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-09-28	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-09-29	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-09-30	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-01	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-02	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-03	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-04	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-05	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-06	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-07	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-08	$-2.61	$142,948,645	13 / 12
2026-10-09	$-2.59	$142,623,174	13 / 12
2026-10-10	$-2.59	$142,623,174	13 / 12
2026-10-11	$-2.59	$142,623,174	13 / 12
2026-10-12	$-2.59	$142,623,174	13 / 12
2026-10-13	$-2.58	$143,681,998	13 / 12
2026-10-14	$-2.58	$143,681,998	13 / 12
2026-10-15	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-16	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-17	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-18	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-19	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-20	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-21	$-2.58	$143,681,998	12 / 12
2026-10-22	$-2.62	$142,432,233	13 / 12
2026-10-23	$-2.62	$142,432,233	13 / 12
2026-10-24	$-2.61	$142,432,233	13 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	0
2026-06-01	18	0
2026-07-01	18	0
2026-08-01	18	0
2026-09-01	18	1
2026-10-01	17	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Extend cash runway into 2027Cash and cash equivalents: $437.091M

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

1 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Scholar Rock Holding Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, loss-making biotech company with meaningful dependence on one newly approved product. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management delivered on the approval and launch milestone, but recent financial performance has been below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Scholar Rock Holding Corp.

The valuation model suggests SRRK is expensive versus peers, with a sizable premium, while its expectations gap is negative and model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility gates triggered, but the evidence does not specify exactly which launch or growth assumptions the market already expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the FDA approval of ISEMBYLD and the launch underway mark progress on management’s stated priority; cash and marketable securities rose between the first and second quarters, with management expecting runway into 2027. Results have been mixed, including an earnings miss in May and in-line earnings in August, while the company remains loss-making and risk is elevated.

What Scholar Rock Holding Corp. hinges on

Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on launch execution and whether the cash runway can support progress without a setback. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum; weakening jobs data could weigh on cyclical names and healthcare sentiment.