Spire (SR)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-10-23

$85.24-0.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Spire’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	—	805.92M
EPS	—	1.869
FY 2026 · Annual
Capital expenditure	$797M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.87B
EPS	—	5.48
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.01B
EPS	—	6.166

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at or above $0.82	Dividends increased to $0.825 per share, showing steady shareholder returns.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.79	Dividend per share: $0.82 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.82 per share dividend. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 20260.825 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 020764f5-404b-438c-8c2a-94eb16b8f60c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Dividends per share have been consistently maintained at $0.825 from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This demonstrates management's commitment to stable shareholder returns and financial discipline. The trajectory is delivering as dividends remain steady. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Adjusted EPS growth reflecting Piedmont Tennessee acquisition	Spire grows earnings with the Piedmont Tennessee acquisition.	Broken	Fiscal 2027 EPS guidance falls below $5.65	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee business was completed on March 31, 2026. Gas Utility segment adjusted earnings grew from $273.0 million in 2025-Q2 to $335.5 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting integration benefits and regulated growth. The trajectory is delivering as management has successfully closed the acquisition and earnings have improved. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gas Utility adjusted earnings growth	Regulated gas utility earnings rose to $234.8 million in Q2 2026.	Intact	Gas Utility adjusted earnings fall below $195 million in any quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gas Utility segment operating income increased from $277.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $303.5 million in 2026-Q2, and adjusted earnings grew from $273.0 million to $335.5 million over the same period. Management consistently attributes growth to new rates, infrastructure investment, and cost discipline. The trajectory is delivering with clear financial improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$3.01B

$3.01B → $3.01B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$3,008,166,909	1 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$3,008,000,242	1 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$3,113,460,466	1 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$3,013,354,310	1 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$3,013,354,310	1 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	4
2026-06-01	6	5
2026-07-01	7	5
2026-08-01	7	4
2026-09-01	6	5
2026-10-01	6	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankSep 29

$79.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$43.45$86.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at or above $0.82Dividend per share: $0.82 per share
Adjusted EPS growth reflecting Piedmont Tennessee acquisitionPublished status: Broken
Gas Utility adjusted earnings growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 17, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Spire outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regulated utility and infrastructure growth thesis, with recent earnings performance providing support. The thesis state is intact, but confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution remains volatile.

What's priced into Spire

SR is characterized as cheap versus peers, and the current pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility. The evidence does not show that the market is assuming a sharp improvement; the expectations gap is slightly negative.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, the completed Piedmont Tennessee acquisition and reported growth in Gas Utility adjusted earnings support the earnings trajectory. The Boardwalk acquisition also closed, while the dividend has remained steady, though debt issuance and a new financial obligation are near-term items to watch. Near term, the most recent quarter was a miss and the company is on a run of earnings misses, despite a low stated miss risk.

What Spire hinges on

A guidance cut at the next call would weaken the thesis, especially because estimates tend to be revised down after such a cut. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop. Integration benefits and regulated growth need to continue delivering as the acquisitions become part of the business.

Bottom line

For the next 1 to 3 years, SR’s thesis rests on acquisition integration and regulated earnings growth offsetting earnings execution concerns and a sector headwind. The thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.